Hello CPP Nation! (Are we big enough to have a nation yet?) This week I’m trying something new, presenting the picks in a sortable table and including the order that Yahoo uses for the picks. The thinking is you can now sort by the Conf Pts column to see who’s being picked from high to low, but when it’s time to put it into your Yahoo page you can sort by Yahoo Order and it makes it easier. If you’re using a site that uses a different order, let me know what site that is and I’ll see what I can do about adding that column too.
Let me know in the comments what you think of this format. I can always go back to the old way if it’s better.
Onward to Week 6… This week is showing a lot of uncertainty, as the win probabilities drop off pretty fast. There may be a good number of upsets, which I think means you should go for a bunch of contrarian picks. Be interested to hear what CPP Nation thinks.
There were a bunch of “N/A”‘s for Moneyline picks. I did some quick and dirty guessing for win probability based off the point spread (3% win prob per point favored. I remember reading some NFL research paper that said that). Those I’ve indicated in maroon, so if you want to put in your own numbers go for it. For those who can update their picks, check back for the update and some of those may have data that I can use. As usual home team is bolded.

Conf Pts Yahoo Order Pick Public Picked Opp Public Picked Win Prob
15 08 Den 99% NYJ 1% 79%
14 13 Sea 94% Dal 6% 77%
13 10 SD 98% Oak 2% 74%
12 03 Cin 93% Car 7% 74%
11 05 Ten 89% Jac 11% 68%
10 06 GB 93% Mia 7% 62%
09 09 Bal 84% TB 16% 62%
08 11 Atl 70% Chi 30% 62%
07 15 SF 93% StL 7% 62%
06 12 Ari 92% Was 8% 60%
05 01 Ind 83% Hou 17% 59%
04 14 Phi 76% NYG 24% 58%
03 02 NE 84% Buf 16% 58%
02 07 Det 78% Min 22% 56%
01 04 Cle 48% Pit 52% 53%

Bump up pick for this week: Consider Atlanta up to 11, as they are only picked by 70% of the population but have a 62% win probability
Upset picks for this week: Buffalo over New England (42% win probability, 16% picked), and Houston over Indianapolis (41% WP, 17% picked). Who is your upset pick? Choose below!

How did you do last week?
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Good luck!