Week 6 features an almost 100% chance that Denver with beat Jacksonville. Interesting. Definitely not going contrarian with this game!
Here are this week’s picks based on Moneyline (I’ll check back in later when I find out the Advanced NFL Stats model picks). There’s one good contrarian pick here, that’s New England vs New Orleans (57% win, 28% picked). Guess losing the the Bengals last week was enough to scare people away! Two other candidates are Indianapolis vs SD (which was a “Pick Em” game, i.e 50/50 shot, but only 17% picked SD), and a mild one with the Jets vs Pittsburgh:

The “undecided” people’s picks are interesting because it gives us a cheap way to leapfrog some people… If we go high on NYJ over Pit, we get a 58% win probability but can beat 43% of the crowd. In these cases it doesn’t pay to go with the (real, not people’s) underdog here because even if you’re right you don’t beat that many people.
I’ll go all in with New England this week, and bump up the Jets pretty high. For my dad, I’ll go all in with San Diego and bump up the Jets. I’ll also pick New Orleans for my dad to hedge my pick of the NE upset (basically he paid for my entry and I’m supposed to win our money back, so we’re a team here). I’ll see if ANS data matches and I’ll make any tweaks accordingly.
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