[Note: This post was updated at 12:30 PM EDT on Thursday October 16. I had a couple of bad cells on my spreadsheet that caused Seattle to be the wrong win probability by a lot, and a couple of other data points being off. It changes the picks substantially. I apologize for any inconvenience]
Nothing like a fresh new week to start anew!
Moneyline accuracy study: If you’re interested in getting this report before I post it on this site, make sure you’re on our email list.
An aside: As many of you know, I’m a big Packer fan. I’m on the season ticket waiting list, and have been tracking my number for the last 14 years. If you’d like to see where I stand over time, check out my Packer season ticket waiting list graph.
Without further adieu, here are the picks for this week!
| Conf Pts | Yahoo Order | Pick | Public Picked | Opp | Public Picked | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 01 | NE | 99% | NYJ | 1% | 80% |
| 14 | 05 | GB | 94% | Car | 6% | 74% |
| 13 | 07 | Sea | 98% | StL | 2% | 73% |
| 12 | 10 | Bal | 92% | Atl | 8% | 73% |
| 11 | 14 | Den | 93% | SF | 7% | 72% |
| 10 | 12 | Dal | 93% | NYG | 7% | 72% |
| 09 | 02 | Buf | 93% | Min | 7% | 70% |
| 08 | 08 | Was | 81% | Ten | 19% | 70% |
| 07 | 09 | Cle | 93% | Jac | 7% | 69% |
| 06 | 11 | SD | 85% | KC | 15% | 66% |
| 05 | 15 | Pit | 53% | Hou | 47% | 63% |
| 04 | 13 | Ari | 92% | Oak | 8% | 62% |
| 03 | 06 | Ind | 87% | Cin | 13% | 61% |
| 02 | 03 | Chi | 89% | Mia | 11% | 61% |
| 01 | 04 | Det | 55% | NO | 45% | 58% |
This is the third post where I’m using the new sortable tables. I’d like to take a poll to see which format you liked better:
Potential bump up picks: Washington up to 14, SD up to 10
Potential upset picks:
Miami over Chicago, Cincinnati over Indy, Oakland over Arizona