[Note: This post was updated at 12:30 PM EDT on Thursday October 16. I had a couple of bad cells on my spreadsheet that caused Seattle to be the wrong win probability by a lot, and a couple of other data points being off. It changes the picks substantially. I apologize for any inconvenience]
Nothing like a fresh new week to start anew!
Moneyline accuracy study: If you’re interested in getting this report before I post it on this site, make sure you’re on our email list.
An aside: As many of you know, I’m a big Packer fan. I’m on the season ticket waiting list, and have been tracking my number for the last 14 years. If you’d like to see where I stand over time, check out my Packer season ticket waiting list graph.
Without further adieu, here are the picks for this week!

Conf Pts Yahoo Order Pick Public Picked Opp Public Picked Win Prob
15 01 NE 99% NYJ 1% 80%
14 05 GB 94% Car 6% 74%
13 07 Sea 98% StL 2% 73%
12 10 Bal 92% Atl 8% 73%
11 14 Den 93% SF 7% 72%
10 12 Dal 93% NYG 7% 72%
09 02 Buf 93% Min 7% 70%
08 08 Was 81% Ten 19% 70%
07 09 Cle 93% Jac 7% 69%
06 11 SD 85% KC 15% 66%
05 15 Pit 53% Hou 47% 63%
04 13 Ari 92% Oak 8% 62%
03 06 Ind 87% Cin 13% 61%
02 03 Chi 89% Mia 11% 61%
01 04 Det 55% NO 45% 58%

This is the third post where I’m using the new sortable tables. I’d like to take a poll to see which format you liked better:

How did you do last week?
0 votes · 0 answers
SubmitResults

Potential bump up picks: Washington up to 14, SD up to 10
Potential upset picks:
Miami over Chicago, Cincinnati over Indy,  Oakland over Arizona

How did you do last week?
0 votes · 0 answers
SubmitResults