This week, both of my “all-in” picks were correct… yet I still ended up in the middle of the pack. Both Carolina and San Diego came through with the people’s upset. The second place team didn’t use any practical strategy, he/she just went 15 for the first game, 14 for the second game, on down the line to 1. There’s really no strategy to go against no strategy, other than let the percentages play out.
The game that killed me this week was the Pittsburgh vs NYJ game. The Jets had a 58-63% win probability, but only 57% of the people chose them to win, so I took that chance to bump them up some. The Steelers ended up winning pretty decisively. But all I can do is play the odds and hope!
To try to determine the success of the week when I don’t win (which is most weeks this year), I try to see if I had any “one step away” situations, in other words, if one thing would’ve gone differently would I have won. In this case, if the Jets (who were favored) would’ve beat Pittsburgh, I would’ve tied for 2nd place (even against the person with no strategy). Or, if I had gone all in with two picks of my contrarian picks instead of one (Carolina over Minnesota AND San Diego over Indy), I would’ve finished in the money.
One interesting piece of data I’m going to try to start looking at is the expected score distribution that the general public will get. Yahoo’s Pick Em site gives you the average confidence and the percentage of people who pick a certain team, which then combined with win probability would get us some idea of what the expected score of the competition will be. Not sure how to use that data yet… In an expected higher scoring week, should I take more risk or less risk?
My score:

Dad’s score:

League score (note the “strategy” of the 2nd place winner), click to enlarge: