It was a great Week 7 for the Ting family:
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(My dad is a retired Miller Brewing hops chemist, hence the name). This was the last week I’d get to pick for Dad, and it’s nice to be validated. Although you could say we probably should’ve hedged a bit, since winning first and second in one week isn’t as good as winning first it two separate weeks.
For Dad, the key all-in game panned out, which was Washington over Chicago. RGIII led a game winning drive in the early game to give us a shot at winning the week. Carolina, the “no-brainer” all in pick, also came through as they beat St. Louis. After the early games, I called Dad and told him we had a shot this week. We just finished watching his beloved Cowboys beat the Eagles (a people’s upset that didn’t happen, which usually hurts a lot but didn’t hurt us this week), and he asked if I had picked Dallas for him. I said no, neither model gave them a good win probability (30%ish), to which he said looks like my models don’t work. I told him but I picked Washington over Chicago for him. He asked me how much, and I said 14, and maybe we should focus on that game instead of the Cowboys wrong pick. 🙂
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The afternoon games were still a little dicey… I had gone pretty contrarian with Pittsburgh over Baltimore (31% picked Pittsburgh, with a 60% win probability) and most of the league had gone Baltimore. That game was close, but then Pittsburgh pulled it out with a FG with time expiring. At that point, I texted Dad and told him he would win if Denver lost to Indy on Sunday night or NYG beat Minnesota on Monday night. He stuck with a Broncos win the whole time (talking about the ANS model with win probability didn’t convince him). Throughout the night the Colts looked like they would pull off the upset, so I acted a little cocky… but I’m sure winning first place for him made things good:
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The fact that I didn’t pick the upset outright wasn’t the point; I picked up a lot of points because we only picked Denver for 5 points, while most of the league blew 11, 12, 13, 14 points on them. So we netted positive when Denver lost even if we picked them to win. The Advanced NFL stats model had a good week this week, showing a higher than expected win probability for the Jets over the Patriots and the Colts over the Broncos, which were big time people’s upsets. I put small confidence points on both, which put us ahead of most of the league. Wonder if Brian Burke at ANS will do a victory lap of sorts.