Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season! This week, I’m going back to the previous way of displaying picks as this format won 2 to 1 in the poll last week. As you may recall, I had a bad cell in my spreadsheet that made Seattle a prime upset candidate by accident. Well, as we all know, sure enough they were upset. So people who didn’t see the correction might have won their league. Sometimes two wrongs do make a right, as @Shady pointed out. Nevertheless, I don’t plan on having that issue again (incidentally, I just went back and checked all my cells again).
Many of us did well or won their league last week. Congrats to @The Z-Man, who won the week in his 51 team league. For me, it was time to start putting in big contrarian picks. I tied for second place, going with the Miami upset of the Bears for 10 points (sorry Bears fans, to make up for it, one of the good contrarian picks this week is GB to be upset). @Drew asked if Pittsburgh should be considered a bump up pick, and after thinking about it more, yes they could have been. In fact, if I had done that, I could’ve won the week.
This week, I posted another strategy page on strategies for confidence league with points spreads. It’s basically the same as this format, except all the win probabilities are 50%. This is still a theory, and I’d love a chance to see if it works in a league. If you or someone you know plays in one of these types of leagues, check out the page!
Onward to the picks for this week (home team is bolded):

Bump up candidates:  Detroit, Tampa Bay, NYJ, and Arizona. Detroit can go up to 11, the rest can go up to 9 or 10.
Upset pick candidates: Pittsburgh (10% picked, 40% win prob) over Indianapolis, Tennessee (18%, 46%) over Houston, and New Orleans (25%, 53%) at home over the Packers. Note, New Orleans isn’t technically an upset from a Vegas definition, but only 25% of the people are picking them despite being a Vegas favorite. So this is a great place to separate yourself from the crowd (especially if you play in a league of Packer fans).

How did you do last week?
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