Still waiting on the Advanced NFL Stats data, but figured it’s time to get SOMETHING posted. Here are the lists of games with Moneyline win probabilities only:

Some potential upset picks are Buffalo over KC (12% chosen, 38% win probability), Miami over Cincinnati (14%, 38%), Philly over Oakland (18%, 42%), and Houston over Indy (8%, 42%). The Philly and Houston picks are interesting because they both have QB issues. The Moneyline picks take those into account; the ANS model will not. So even taking the QB situations into account, pro gamblers disagree with the general public a bit on these teams.
Will update as soon as I have ANS model data.