Week 9 saw BOTH of my contrarian all-in picks win, for my dad and for me. Since I picked the rest of the picks the same, we ended up tied… but we tied for 5th and 6th (we’re the “Ting” teams):
It’s kinda deflating when both of your all in picks win and you don’t end up in the money. I speculated that my Cleveland pick wasn’t contrarian enough, and it looks like that’s the case. However, as suggested by commenter @G Moore, even putting both contrarian picks on top would have netted me 66 points… or tied for third place.  So what went wrong?
One game: Cincinnati getting upset by Miami. This was a double whammy: The game had a high win probability (72% averaged) AND maybe people picked them low or against them. Since I had a relatively high pick for my current home team Bungles, I lost a lot of ground with Miami’s walk off safety in overtime. (Just for clarification, my teams are the Packers and the Cowboys. I’ve never really adopted the Cincinnati teams). Dad and I would’ve tied for first had that game swung the right way. But it’s hard to go against a 72% win probability pick.
I wanted to acknowledge the previously mentioned @G Moore. He asked some good questions, and I hope to address them in a later post. Meanwhile, please drop me a comment or a question. I’d like to see who’s out there, and would love to hear if this blog has been helpful, or what your methods are!