Like a fantasy league, being in a Confidence Pick Em league makes you watch games you typically wouldn’t care about. Unlike a fantasy league, you are actually rooting for a team to win instead of individual players. When I’m scoreboard watching or finding a game to watch on Sunday, I find myself trying to figure out which team to root for. It’s not always the team you picked; if most of the league picked that team very high and you picked them low, you actually want that team to lose. You also have certain games that matter a lot more than others, especially if you use the contrarian strategy. Last week, the key game was the Cincinnati Bengals game, even though I only had them at 8.
This week, after the games were locked and Yahoo published what the rest of the league had picked, I did a little analysis and determined what the average gain/loss would be if the team I picked won. This will tell me which teams I need to root for, and which games had the most effect on my chances of taking first place. Here are the results, first for my picks then for Dad’s picks, in order of the most important games first:

For my picks, a Minnesota win would put me an average of 17 points ahead of everyone in the league. It’s the most important game for me to win by far. Luckily they already won, coming from behind to beat Washington on Thursday night. The NYG are second highest. Both of these were by design, I saw a opportunity to go contrarian with both teams. The interesting thing is Cincinnati is pretty key for both of us.
For my dad, I did a major contrarian pick with SD all in over Denver, and it shows here. A SD upset would net him a 24 point average advantage over the league. I hedged NYG a bit, moving them down, so their effect is only 1.7 for him.
The red shaded teams indicate it’s actually better for that pick to lose, because I would lose ground on average if they won.
Taking these charts into account helps me decide which teams needs my support on Sunday… because of course it’s only weird if it doesn’t work.