Hello all, a quick post for Wild Card Week 1 for people who have to turn in their picks today. For everyone else, I’ll put up an update before Saturday’s games.
 

If you want to go for an upset, you have two teams at 40% win probabilities who would qualify as yellow picks. Carolina has a similar win probability as Dallas, but not getting as much love. They would be a good bump up pick. How about a below .500 playoff team advancing?
I also calculated some probabilities of each team winning the following rounds based off Vegas odds: