Week 10: Quite the bloodbath with so many big upsets. I survived the Yahoo MGM contest by picking Buffalo last week.

Here are the picks for Week 11:

Blue pick (lowest risk): CLE and TEN are good value here at over 80% win probability and only 4 more wins left in the season.

Yellow pick (medium risk): NE is a good value here if you’re willing to take a little risk. The 73% win probability is lower, but they only have 3 more wins left.

Green pick (high risk, high rewards): Nothing really jumped out this week.

My pick: 1. CLE, and in my other league where I now have two strikes and already picked CLE: TEN.

To review:

Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.

Remaining wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have left this season (remaining wins is total predicted wins minus current wins). This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.

% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.