2024 NCAA Tournament March Madness Picks

It’s time for another year of March Madness! Following are some good value picks (i.e. teams where they have a relatively higher chance of winning and a relatively low pick rate). Green picks are the higher risk higher reward picks, yellow picks are slightly lower risk but a little lower reward. Blue picks are the favorites that have some value, and red picks are overrated teams (lower win probability but everyone’s picking them). Here we go:

Champion Picks:

Most picked: Connecticut (23% win prob, 32% picked).

UConn has the highest win probability, but almost 1/3 of the people picked them. You’ll probably want other upset picks in previous games if you go with them for the championship.

Money picks: 1. Arizona (13% win prob, 4% picked) 2. Purdue (15%, 10%)

Arizona is your best value pick here with only 4% picked, with Purdue second.

Overrated pick: North Carolina (4%, 10%)

North Carolina is only pegged at 4% chance of winning it all, and has a relatively low win probability throughout the tourney compared to the others.

Lower seed upset picks: 1. New Mexico 2. NC State 3. Grand Canyon

Lower seed high risk upset picks: 1. Virginia 2. Charleston

Best of luck this year!

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