2024 Week 5 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

Regular Confidence Pool Picks, Uncategorized / 7 Comments

Hey Confidence Pool Picks Nation! Get ready—Week 5 of the 2024 season is here, and it’s going to be exciting!

Week 4 delivered some exciting surprises with six major upsets! Two of our medium-risk picks (Dark Green Picks)—the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—came through with wins against heavily favored teams. On the flip side, our high-risk picks (Light Green Picks), the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, couldn’t quite pull off their upsets. Big shoutout to those of you who backed the Colts (who handed the Steelers their first upset) and the Buccaneers! Hopefully, those teams were in your lineup!

In the CPP Nation Pool, a huge congratulations to “Capello” for clinching first place! You really crushed it with those high-value points to snag the top spot. A big shoutout to “Baba Booey” and “Go Colts!!!” for taking home second and third place, respectively! Great job, everyone!

Base Picks: 97
Some Risk: 104
Med Risk: 82
High Risk: 90

Current Season Base Pick Score: 316

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Here are this week’s updated base picks.

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Get ready for Week 5 updated picks, where we’ve got 3 High Risk Picks and 7 Medium Risk Picks lined up to keep the excitement rolling! Don’t forget to check out the new column: the money score. The higher the score, the better the pick!

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Picks updated on 10/04]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

  • Cleveland Browns (CLE) over Washington Commanders (WAS): 38% win probability, 6% pick-rate
  • New York Giants (NYG) over Seattle Seahawks (SEA): 26% win probability, 2% pick-rate
  • Arizona Cardinals (ARI) over San Francisco 49ers (SEA): 24% win probability, 3% pick-rate

This week’s updated picks are here, and the Cleveland Browns are taking the spotlight as our top higher-risk underdog, boasting a 38% chance to win against the Washington Commanders—though only 6% of you are backing them! Keep an eye on the New York Giants with a 26% win probability and the Arizona Cardinals at 24%. Both teams have low pick rates, making them intriguing options to consider!

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

  • New York Jets (NYJ) over Minnesota Vikings (MIN): 43% win probability, 12% pick-rate
  • Cincinnati Bengals (CIN) over Baltimore Ravens (BAL): 44% win probability, 15% pick-rate
  • Carolina Panthers (CAR) over Chicago Bears (CHI): 35% win probability, 12% pick-rate
  • Los Angeles Rams (LAR) over Green Bay Packers (GBP): 39% win probability, 15% pick-rate
  • Houston Texans (HOU) over Buffalo Bills (BUF): 52% win probability, 28% pick-rate
  • Miami Dolphins (MIA) over New England Patriots (NEP): 49% win probability, 25% pick-rate
  • Las Vegas Raiders (LAS) over Denver Broncos (BAL): 41% win probability, 22% pick-rate

The New York Jets are looking strong with a 41% chance to take down the Vikings, yet only 11% of you are on board! The Cincinnati Bengals are shining as one of our top Medium Risk Picks, boasting a 42% chance and a 14% pick rate. And don’t overlook the Carolina Panthers—they have a solid 35% chance to win, with just 12% of you backing them, making them a fantastic under-the-radar choice this week! Plus, keep an eye on the Los Angeles Rams (LAR) over the Green Bay Packers (GBP)—with a 38% win probability and 18% pick rate, they’re a solid upset contender!

As of today, we have new Medium Risk Picks that you won’t want to miss. These include the Houston Texans, with a 52% win probability and a 28% pick rate; the Miami Dolphins, with a 49% win probability and a 25% pick rate; and the Las Vegas Raiders, with a 41% win probability and a 22% pick rate. Notably, both the Texans and Dolphins have a better $ Score compared to some other Medium Risk Picks, so keep an eye on them.

Suggested picks by risk

Now, it’s time to aim even higher! Let’s push for even more points in Week 5—stay focused, analyze the matchups, and climb that leaderboard!
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.

› Forums › 2024 Week 5 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

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    • 10/01/2024 at 12:06 pm #11393 Reply
      Joey De la Pena
      Moderator

      Hey Confidence Pool Picks Nation! Get ready—Week 5 of the 2024 season is here, and it’s going to be exciting! Week 4 delivered some exciting surprises
      [See the full post at: 2024 Week 5 Regular Confidence Pool Picks]

    • 10/01/2024 at 3:31 pm #11396 Reply
      Annette Widlacki
      Member

      Hi if we take a medium or high risk bet do we leave it ranked as is or drop it low?

    • 10/02/2024 at 11:37 am #11401 Reply
      Justin Wybenga
      Member

      Hello, been using you guys for 3 years now with good success, thanks.

      Can you please tell us a little more about how the new $ Score numbers are calculated and what factors are behind them? For example why is CLE a 6.9 and LAR only a 2.2, with similar win probability % etc.

      Also how does it factor into ‘risk’ considerations? Meaning, that based on the $ Score indicating a better pick, wouldn’t it make more sense to pick NYG on the suggested pick list after CLE instead of NYJ? Wouldn’t a 6.4 rated pick be less ‘risky’ than a 5.2 rated pick?

      Thanks for the clarification, Appreciate the work you do

      • 10/05/2024 at 6:45 pm #11414 Reply
        Dale Ting
        Member

        Hey Justin, the pick score is something we’re kinda dabbling with. Still a work in progress. But yes, the higher score would be a better pick by the numbers, but some people still may want to make other picks because they have other info or maybe they know a lot of people in their league are picking them.

    • 10/03/2024 at 4:59 pm #11406 Reply
      Carl Thompson
      Member

      You have NYJ in the some risk column with 14 points, but picked MIN in both the med risk and high risk. Can you please explain your logic? I would think putting 14 points on an upset would be considered a high risk move.

    • 10/05/2024 at 6:49 pm #11415 Reply
      Dale Ting
      Member

      Hi Carl, yes if you’re looking to win the week (vs win the season) you would want to take that risk. I went with Denver for 16 last week in one pool and when they pulled the upset I won the week. You will lose much of the time, but hopefully you’d hit 4-5 times a year and be in the money.

      Check out this article: https://confidencepoolpicks.com/nfl-weekly-confidence-pool-picks-the-basics/

      • 10/07/2024 at 1:15 pm #11421 Reply
        Carl Thompson
        Member

        Yes, if you pick a huge upset then yes you will be in the money. But, it would be helpful if you had some logic with your pick. Other than stats.

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