Welcome CPP Nation to our 2023 March Madness picks! What we hope to do is to show you some of the better value picks (i.e. teams where they have a relatively higher chance of winning and a relatively low pick rate). Let’s get started:
Champion Picks: 1. Houston (22% win prob, 13% picked) 2. Alabama (16%, 22%) 3. Texas (8%, 6%) 4. Gonzaga (5%, 6%)
This year is a bit different from previous years, as the champ odds are pretty spread out. Sometimes in the past, a team Duke was vastly overpicked. But Houston is the best value, with Alabama coming in next. If you want to take a risk, Texas and then Gonzaga would be the picks.
Overrated pick: Kansas (5%, 13%)
Not quite as bad as Duke in the past, but Kansas has a relatively low probability of winning but it has one of the higher public picked rates. Teams that play them may be good upset picks near the Sweet 16.
Final 4 value picks: 1. UConn 2. Tennessee 3. Creighton 4. Kentucky
These teams seem to be good value (lower picked, higher win probability) up to the Final 4. You may want to consider some of these teams to go far, but not necessarily win it all.
Lower seed upset picks: 1. Boise State 2. Utah State 3. Furman 4. Kent State
Boise State and Utah State (10 seeds) look like good value upset picks in the first round, even into the 2nd round if you want to take a chance. Furman and Kent State, both 13 seeds, are good early upset picks.
Best of luck this year! The color coding is loosely set up like this:
- Green: High risk but high reward if it hits
- Yellow: Medium risk, medium reward
- Blue: Some risk, some reward