Week 11: I struck out in another league this week, as I hit my third strike with the TEN pick. It was rough, I hit three strikes in 4 weeks.
Here are the picks for Week 12, which is looking like a lot of teams will get strikes this week as our top pick is only a 75% win probability.
Blue pick (lowest risk): Tough week this week, as the best bet is Dallas at 75%.
Yellow pick (medium risk): NE at 69% is a medium risky pick but good value as they only have 3 more expected wins left.
Green pick (high risk, high rewards): CHI, CIN, and HOU are good risks to take this week if you still have strikes left. There’s a good chance a lot of teams go down this week.
My pick: In the Confidence Pool league, I’m taking CIN and hoping! In the Yahoo MGM Survivor contest, I’m going with New England and saving Dallas for later, in the hopes there will be a later.
Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.
Remaining wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have left this season (remaining wins is total predicted wins minus current wins). This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.
% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.
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