Week 12: Lucked out in the one-strike contest pool because I went with NE instead of Dallas, so I’m still alive there! Lotsa teams went down this week with Dallas losing and having low win probabilities this week.
Since we are getting close to the end in many leagues, I’m going to do some analysis that will help you plan out the next few weeks to hopefully get you to the finish line. First, we will change the “remaining wins” column to the average win probability for the next three weeks. We also will add a grid that shows win probabilities of each team for the rest of the reason. This chart will be available free for people who join the email list and select “Survivor Pool.” See below for a preview of what that chart looks like.
Rest of Season Win Probabilities Preview (join our FREE email list to get full chart)
Here are the picks for Week 13
Blue pick (lowest risk): LAR Best pick this week if you still have them are the LA Rams. Highest win probability and not many chances of wins for the rest of the season.
Yellow pick (medium risk): IND is a good value at 80% win probability.
Green pick (high risk, high rewards): PHI and DAL. If you need to take some chances, PHI or DAL would be the pick here since they don’t have many high probability wins remaining, but they’re risky because of a relatively low win probability this week.
My pick: This week I’m going to put all my trust in Tom Brady and the Bucs, as that’s my best bet pick left in my “one strike” league. For the other smaller league, I’m going with Arizona.
Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.
Remaining wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have left this season (remaining wins is total predicted wins minus current wins). This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.
Update: The rest of season win probability chart gives specific win probabilities for each of the remaining weeks to help you plan.
% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.
Get our rest of season picks table and find out what MY strategy will be to hopefully get to the finish line! Sign up for our email list here and select “Survivor Pool”: