Week 13: Tom Brady comes through. I’m now down to 211 finalists.
Since we are getting close to the end in many leagues, I’m going to do some analysis that will help you plan out the next few weeks to hopefully get you to the finish line. (For those of you already on the email list, the same link will work for all updates). First, we will change the “remaining wins” column to the average win probability for the next three weeks. We also will add a grid that shows win probabilities of each team for the rest of the reason. This chart will be available free for people who join the email list and select “Survivor Pool.” See below for a preview of what that chart looks like.
Rest of Season Win Probabilities Preview (join our FREE email list to get full chart)
Here are the picks for Week 14:
Blue pick (lowest risk): GB, KC, TEN. TEN is higher value here, but GB has higher win probability. KC is best but I’m guessing most people have already picked them.
Yellow pick (medium risk): SEA is 76% win probability, with not many wins left in the season.
Green pick (high risk, high rewards): NO and CAR. NO is probably the better high risk pick, if you want to save some of the big dogs for later.
My pick: I have to pick two picks for one league, so I’m going with TEN and GB.
Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.
Remaining wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have left this season (remaining wins is total predicted wins minus current wins). This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.
Update: The rest of season win probability chart gives specific win probabilities for each of the remaining weeks to help you plan.
% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.
Get our rest of season picks table and find out what MY strategy will be to hopefully get to the finish line! Sign up for our email list here and select “Survivor Pool”: