Week 8 showed some bad upsets, including my first strike with Cincinnati.

Here are the picks for Week 9:

Blue pick (lowest risk): BUF is the safe pick at 89%, but I’m guessing many of us have burned that pick already.

Wednesday update: BUF has gone up to 91%

Yellow pick (medium risk): IND is a good value here at 82% and only 5 wins remaining.

Green pick (high risk, high rewards): MIA is your high risk pick for the week, with only 4 wins remaining but at 72% win probability.

Wednesday update: KC is now in the mix at 77% win probability thanks to the Aaron Rodgers situation.  

My pick: I went with MIA in the league where I had already burned IND, and they IND with the other higher risk league that I’m in.

To review:

Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.

Remaining wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have left this season (remaining wins is total predicted wins minus current wins). This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.

% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.