Welcome to Week 1! It’s time for another NFL season and more Confidence Pool Picks. It’s great to have everyone back.

[New for this year: Strike/Survivor Pool Picks (beta)]

If you need a refresher on how to make confidence pool picks, please check out our posts here:

There are a couple schools of thought for early in the season. 1. Go safe (base picks), keep yourself in the running for a season prize, and maybe get lucky and hit a weekly prize. 2. Go high risk, since it’s early and people don’t really know who’s good anyway. If you lose, just keep going high risk each week. Premium members get 4 sets of picks each week: 1. Base 2. Low risk 3. Medium Risk 4. High Risk.

We will be updating picks 2-3 times a week. Without further adieu, see below for 2021 Week 1 picks!

How are you going to do in 2021?
248 votes · 248 answers
SubmitResults

Here are the FREE picks for the week. [Updated 9/11/21]

Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob Underdog Win Prob
16
TB
-9 80% vs
DAL
20%
15
SF
-9 79% @
DET
21%
14
LAR
-8.5 78% vs
CHI
22%
13
BUF
-6.5 73% vs
PIT
27%
12
KC
-5 69% vs
CLE
31%
11
BAL
-4 65% @
LAS
35%
10
CAR
-3.5 65% vs
NYJ
35%
9
NE
-3.5 64% vs
MIA
36%
8
ATL
-3.5 63% vs
PHI
37%
7
GB
-3.5 62% @
NO
38%
6
JAX
-3 61% @
HOU
39%
5
MIN
-3 60% @
CIN
40%
4
TEN
-3 59% vs
ARI
41%
3
SEA
-2.5 57% @
IND
43%
2
DEN
-3 57% @
NYG
43%
1
LAC
-1.5 51% @
WSH
49%

 

Following is a FREE preview of Premium Member content, which includes money picks and low, medium, and high risk picks.

***FREE preview Premium Member content***

Here are your PREMIUM picks. [Updated 9/11/21]

 

Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob % Pick Avg Conf Underdog Win Prob % Pick Avg Conf Pred Score
16
TB
-9 80% 95% 12.6 vs
DAL
20% 5% 4.1 31-21
15
SF
-9 79% 96% 12.4 @
DET
21% 4% 5.0 27-19
14
LAR
-8.5 78% 93% 11.6 vs
CHI
22% 7% 5.1 28-19
13
BUF
-6.5 73% 92% 9.8 vs
PIT
27% 8% 4.9 27-21
12
KC
-5 69% 95% 12.0 vs
CLE
31% 5% 4.4 30-25
11
BAL
-4 65% 83% 9.1 @
LAS
35% 17% 5.5 2--2
10
CAR
-3.5 65% 92% 9.4 vs
NYJ
35% 8% 4.5 24-21
9
NE
-3.5 64% 66% 6.2 vs
MIA
36% 34% 4.7 23-20
8
ATL
-3.5 63% 80% 6.7 vs
PHI
37% 20% 4.4 26-23
7
GB
-3.5 62% 92% 10.2 @
NO
38% 8% 5.3 26-23
6
JAX
-3 61% 80% 6.1 @
HOU
39% 20% 4.5 25-21
5
MIN
-3 60% 83% 7.8 @
CIN
40% 17% 4.3 25-22
4
TEN
-3 59% 85% 7.6 vs
ARI
41% 15% 4.7 28-26
3
SEA
-2.5 57% 86% 8.5 @
IND
43% 14% 4.4 26-23
2
DEN
-3 57% 63% 5.5 @
NYG
43% 37% 4.2 22-20
1
LAC
-1.5 51% 58% 5.2 @
WSH
49% 42% 4.5 23-22

 

Green Picks: 1. New Orleans, Cleveland. 2. NYJ. The Saints are a good risky pick this week, at a 37% win probability but only 10% picked. The Jets are slightly worse, at a 31% win probability at 8% picked. If you want to take a gamble, go with Cleveland at a 28% win probability but only 4% picked.

Update Saturday: The picks all got better, as New Orleans, NYJ, and Cleveland’s win probabilities have all gone up. New Orleans’s % picked has gone down.

Yellow Picks: 1. Indy 2. Arizona. The Colts are a great value pick at 44% win probability but only 13% picked. Arizona is next at 40% win probably and 15% picked.

Update Saturday: These picks are close to the same, with the Indy pick slightly worse.

Blue Picks: Denver. The Broncos are a good small risk team to take, you can bump them up to 16 or as high as you want. They have a 60% win probability but only 56% picked.

Update Saturday: People are on to the Denver pick, as it’s now 61% picked. Not as good of a blue pick but still there.

And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:

 

Point Base (Lowest) Some Risk Med Risk High Risk
16
TB
DEN
IND
NO
15
SF
TB
TB
TB
14
LAR
SF
SF
SF
13
BUF
LAR
LAR
LAR
12
KC
BUF
BUF
BUF
11
CAR
KC
KC
KC
10
BAL
CAR
CAR
CAR
9
GB
BAL
BAL
BAL
8
JAX
GB
GB
JAX
7
NE
JAX
JAX
NE
6
MIN
NE
NE
MIN
5
ATL
MIN
MIN
ATL
4
TEN
ATL
ATL
TEN
3
DEN
TEN
TEN
DEN
2
SEA
SEA
DEN
SEA
1
LAC
LAC
LAC
LAC

 

Like what you see? Click here to get your premium picks now!