Welcome to Week 1! It’s time for another NFL season and more Confidence Pool Picks. It’s great to have everyone back.
[New for this year: Strike/Survivor Pool Picks (beta)]
If you need a refresher on how to make confidence pool picks, please check out our posts here:
There are a couple schools of thought for early in the season. 1. Go safe (base picks), keep yourself in the running for a season prize, and maybe get lucky and hit a weekly prize. 2. Go high risk, since it’s early and people don’t really know who’s good anyway. If you lose, just keep going high risk each week. Premium members get 4 sets of picks each week: 1. Base 2. Low risk 3. Medium Risk 4. High Risk.
We will be updating picks 2-3 times a week. Without further adieu, see below for 2021 Week 1 picks!
Here are the FREE picks for the week. [Updated 9/11/21]
| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | Underdog | Win Prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |  TB |
-9 | 80% | vs |  DAL |
20% |
| 15 |  SF |
-9 | 79% | @ |  DET |
21% |
| 14 |  LAR |
-8.5 | 78% | vs |  CHI |
22% |
| 13 |  BUF |
-6.5 | 73% | vs |  PIT |
27% |
| 12 |  KC |
-5 | 69% | vs |  CLE |
31% |
| 11 |  CAR |
-3.5 | 65% | vs |  NYJ |
35% |
| 10 |  BAL |
-4 | 65% | @ |  LAS |
35% |
| 9 |  NE |
-3.5 | 64% | vs |  MIA |
36% |
| 8 |  ATL |
-3.5 | 63% | vs |  PHI |
37% |
| 7 |  GB |
-3.5 | 62% | @ |  NO |
38% |
| 6 |  JAX |
-3 | 61% | @ |  HOU |
39% |
| 5 |  MIN |
-3 | 60% | @ |  CIN |
40% |
| 4 |  TEN |
-3 | 59% | vs |  ARI |
41% |
| 3 |  SEA |
-2.5 | 57% | @ |  IND |
43% |
| 2 |  DEN |
-3 | 57% | @ |  NYG |
43% |
| 1 |  LAC |
-1.5 | 51% | @ |  WSH |
49% |
Following is a FREE preview of Premium Member content, which includes money picks and low, medium, and high risk picks.
***FREE preview Premium Member content***
Here are your PREMIUM picks. [Updated 9/11/21]
| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Underdog | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Pred Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
TB |
-9 | 80% | 95% | 12.6 | vs |
DAL |
20% | 5% | 4.1 | 31-21 |
| 15 |
SF |
-9 | 79% | 96% | 12.4 | @ |
DET |
21% | 4% | 5.0 | 27-19 |
| 14 |
LAR |
-8.5 | 78% | 93% | 11.6 | vs |
CHI |
22% | 7% | 5.1 | 28-19 |
| 13 |
BUF |
-6.5 | 73% | 92% | 9.8 | vs |
PIT |
27% | 8% | 4.9 | 27-21 |
| 12 |
KC |
-5 | 69% | 95% | 12.0 | vs |
CLE |
31% | 5% | 4.4 | 30-25 |
| 11 |
CAR |
-3.5 | 65% | 92% | 9.4 | vs |
NYJ |
35% | 8% | 4.5 | 24-21 |
| 10 |
BAL |
-4 | 65% | 83% | 9.1 | @ |
LAS |
35% | 17% | 5.5 | 2--2 |
| 9 |
NE |
-3.5 | 64% | 66% | 6.2 | vs |
MIA |
36% | 34% | 4.7 | 23-20 |
| 8 |
ATL |
-3.5 | 63% | 80% | 6.7 | vs |
PHI |
37% | 20% | 4.4 | 26-23 |
| 7 |
GB |
-3.5 | 62% | 92% | 10.2 | @ |
NO |
38% | 8% | 5.3 | 26-23 |
| 6 |
JAX |
-3 | 61% | 80% | 6.1 | @ |
HOU |
39% | 20% | 4.5 | 25-21 |
| 5 |
MIN |
-3 | 60% | 83% | 7.8 | @ |
CIN |
40% | 17% | 4.3 | 25-22 |
| 4 |
TEN |
-3 | 59% | 85% | 7.6 | vs |
ARI |
41% | 15% | 4.7 | 28-26 |
| 3 |
SEA |
-2.5 | 57% | 86% | 8.5 | @ |
IND |
43% | 14% | 4.4 | 26-23 |
| 2 |
DEN |
-3 | 57% | 63% | 5.5 | @ |
NYG |
43% | 37% | 4.2 | 22-20 |
| 1 |
LAC |
-1.5 | 51% | 58% | 5.2 | @ |
WSH |
49% | 42% | 4.5 | 23-22 |
Green Picks: 1. New Orleans, Cleveland. 2. NYJ. The Saints are a good risky pick this week, at a 37% win probability but only 10% picked. The Jets are slightly worse, at a 31% win probability at 8% picked. If you want to take a gamble, go with Cleveland at a 28% win probability but only 4% picked.
Update Saturday: The picks all got better, as New Orleans, NYJ, and Cleveland’s win probabilities have all gone up. New Orleans’s % picked has gone down.
Yellow Picks: 1. Indy 2. Arizona. The Colts are a great value pick at 44% win probability but only 13% picked. Arizona is next at 40% win probably and 15% picked.
Update Saturday: These picks are close to the same, with the Indy pick slightly worse.
Blue Picks: Denver. The Broncos are a good small risk team to take, you can bump them up to 16 or as high as you want. They have a 60% win probability but only 56% picked.
Update Saturday: People are on to the Denver pick, as it’s now 61% picked. Not as good of a blue pick but still there.
And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:
| Point | Base (Lowest) | Some Risk | Med Risk | High Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 |
CAR |
CAR |
CAR |
CAR |
| 21 |
KC |
KC |
BAL |
BAL |
| 20 |
NE |
BAL |
NE |
NE |
| 19 |
SEA |
NE |
SEA |
SEA |
| 18 |
ATL |
SEA |
ATL |
ATL |
| 17 |
LAC |
ATL |
LAC |
LAC |
| 16 |
ARI |
MIN |
MIA |
MIA |
| 15 |
TB |
ARI |
ARI |
ARI |
| 14 |
MIA |
TB |
TB |
TB |
| 13 |
MIA |
DAL |
DAL |
DAL |
| 12 |
SF |
BUF |
BUF |
BUF |
| 11 |
MIA |
SF |
SF |
SF |
| 10 |
LAR |
MIA |
MIA |
MIA |
| 9 |
ARI |
LAR |
LAR |
GB |
| 8 |
PHI |
GB |
GB |
PHI |
| 7 |
MIN |
PHI |
PHI |
MIN |
| 6 |
TB |
MIN |
MIN |
JAX |
| 5 |
TB |
JAX |
JAX |
KC |
| 4 |
CLE |
KC |
CLE |
CLE |
| 3 |
IND |
CLE |
IND |
IND |
| 2 |
TEN |
IND |
TEN |
TEN |
| 1 |
DEN |
TEN |
DEN |
DEN |
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