2021 Week 1 Confidence Pool Picks

Welcome to Week 1! It\’s time for another NFL season and more Confidence Pool Picks. It\’s great to have everyone back.

[New for this year: Strike/Survivor Pool Picks (beta)]

If you need a refresher on how to make confidence pool picks, please check out our posts here:

There are a couple schools of thought for early in the season. 1. Go safe (base picks), keep yourself in the running for a season prize, and maybe get lucky and hit a weekly prize. 2. Go high risk, since it\’s early and people don\’t really know who\’s good anyway. If you lose, just keep going high risk each week. Premium members get 4 sets of picks each week: 1. Base 2. Low risk 3. Medium Risk 4. High Risk.

We will be updating picks 2-3 times a week. Without further adieu, see below for 2021 Week 1 picks!

Here are your PREMIUM picks. [Updated 9/11/21]


[confidence page=\”premium_pick\” week=\’1\’ season=\’2021\’]


Green Picks: 1. New Orleans, Cleveland. 2. NYJ. The Saints are a good risky pick this week, at a 37% win probability but only 10% picked. The Jets are slightly worse, at a 31% win probability at 8% picked. If you want to take a gamble, go with Cleveland at a 28% win probability but only 4% picked.

Update Saturday: The picks all got better, as New Orleans, NYJ, and Cleveland\’s win probabilities have all gone up. New Orleans\’s % picked has gone down.

Yellow Picks: 1. Indy 2. Arizona. The Colts are a great value pick at 44% win probability but only 13% picked. Arizona is next at 40% win probably and 15% picked.

Update Saturday: These picks are close to the same, with the Indy pick slightly worse.

Blue Picks: Denver. The Broncos are a good small risk team to take, you can bump them up to 16 or as high as you want. They have a 60% win probability but only 56% picked.

Update Saturday: People are on to the Denver pick, as it\’s now 61% picked. Not as good of a blue pick but still there.

And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:


[confidence page=\”risk_team\” week=\’1\’ season=\’2021\’]



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