Winner winner chicken dinner!

Took first place in our Confidence Pool Picks™ Confidence Pool (CPPCP) with the New Orleans and Arizona green/yellow combo pick. Unfortunately the only thing I get is the chance to keep my own money I’m putting out for prizes.

Last week there were a ton of upsets, so there’s a chance someone got lucky and hit a bunch. In the long run, there aren’t as many upsets.

We are happy to announce two free games to join, a Confidence Pool Pick™ Survivor Pool and a Confidence Pool Pick™ Against the Spread Pool. You only need to be on our email list to join and win prizes! (Unfortunately our regular Confidence Pool is full).

Join our email list here.

Here are the FREE picks for the week. [Wednesday update: No major changes. The Chargers pick gets even better!]

Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob Underdog Win Prob
16
TB
-13 87% vs
ATL
13%
15
CLE
-13 86% vs
HOU
14%
14
GB
-11.5 84% vs
DET
16%
13
SEA
-6 72% vs
TEN
28%
12
PIT
-6 71% vs
LAS
29%
11
NE
-6 71% @
NYJ
29%
10
DEN
-6 71% @
JAX
29%
9
WSH
-3.5 65% vs
NYG
35%
8
KC
-3.5 65% @
BAL
35%
7
ARI
-3.5 65% vs
MIN
35%
6
LAR
-3.5 65% @
IND
35%
5
BUF
-3.5 64% @
MIA
36%
4
NO
-3.5 62% @
CAR
38%
3
LAC
-3 61% vs
DAL
39%
2
SF
-3 59% @
PHI
41%
1
CHI
-1.5 55% vs
CIN
45%

Following is a FREE preview of Premium Member content, which includes money picks and low, medium, and high risk picks.

***FREE preview Premium Member content***

Here are your PREMIUM picks. This week the win probabilities are higher, so there should be less chances for upsets. Adjust accordingly.

[Wednesday update: No major changes. The Chargers pick gets even better!]

[Thursday update: The teams below the top 3 are really tightly packed around the 60-70% win probability. This could potentially mean a lot of upsets and lower average scoring.]

[Saturday update: Ran some numbers, it looks like this week’s average win probability is actually slightly higher than last week. So slightly less upsets.]

Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob % Pick Avg Conf Underdog Win Prob % Pick Avg Conf Pred Score
16
TB
-13 87% 99% 14.2 vs
ATL
13% 1% 6.0 33-19
15
CLE
-13 86% 97% 12.2 vs
HOU
14% 3% 5.1 31-17
14
GB
-11.5 84% 94% 10.9 vs
DET
16% 6% 4.3 30-19
13
SEA
-6 72% 93% 9.4 vs
TEN
28% 7% 4.2 30-24
12
PIT
-6 71% 83% 7.8 vs
LAS
29% 17% 4.4 26-21
11
NE
-6 71% 94% 9.5 @
NYJ
29% 6% 3.7 25-18
10
DEN
-6 71% 89% 8.5 @
JAX
29% 11% 4.1 26-19
9
WSH
-3.5 65% 83% 6.0 vs
NYG
35% 17% 3.7 22-19
8
KC
-3.5 65% 93% 8.9 @
BAL
35% 7% 4.0 29-25
7
ARI
-3.5 65% 93% 9.4 vs
MIN
35% 7% 4.6 27-24
6
LAR
-3.5 65% 94% 9.8 @
IND
35% 6% 4.2 26-22
5
BUF
-3.5 64% 87% 8.0 @
MIA
36% 13% 3.9 26-22
4
NO
-3.5 62% 89% 8.6 @
CAR
38% 11% 4.1 24-21
3
LAC
-3 61% 43% 4.7 vs
DAL
39% 57% 5.1 29-26
2
SF
-3 59% 74% 7.0 @
PHI
41% 26% 4.2 26-23
1
CHI
-1.5 55% 48% 3.8 vs
CIN
45% 52% 3.9 23-22

Green Picks: 1. IND 2. MIN – Both are great green picks this week, as they are 33-35% win probabilities but only 6-7% picked.

Yellow Picks: No yellows at the moment, the green picks are too good. Go with one of them!

Blue Picks: LAC. At only 38% picked but 60% win probability, as of right now the Chargers should be bumped up the charts, at least to 10+. [Wednesday update: LAC is now an even better pick, up to 63% win probability and down to 37% picked.] [Saturday update: People are on to us on the Chargers pick. It went up to 42% picked.]

And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week. Note the “Some Risk” and “Med Risk” are the same because the picks are extra good so far.

Point Base (Lowest) Some Risk Med Risk High Risk
16
TB
TB
TB
TB
15
CLE
CLE
CLE
CLE
14
GB
GB
GB
GB
13
DEN
LAC
LAC
IND
12
NE
DEN
DEN
DEN
11
SEA
NE
NE
NE
10
PIT
SEA
SEA
SEA
9
ARI
PIT
PIT
PIT
8
KC
ARI
ARI
ARI
7
NO
KC
KC
KC
6
LAR
NO
NO
NO
5
SF
LAR
LAR
SF
4
BUF
SF
SF
BUF
3
WSH
BUF
BUF
WSH
2
LAC
WSH
WSH
LAC
1
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI

Like what you see? Click here to get your premium picks now!