Confidence Pool Strategy: The Base Pick

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How do you choose which team to win, and how many points to give it? The simple answer is to give the team most likely to win the most confidence points, the least likely to win the least confidence points, and slot everything else in between. We currently use Moneyline betting data to determine this, in which the oddsmakers tell you how much money they will pay out if the team you’re betting on wins. The more likely to win, the less they will pay out. By using these numbers, we can come up with a “Win Probability” that basically says what percent chance a team has of winning.

We’re calling these our Base Picks, which we will post for free. Here’s what one week’s picks looked like from a previous year:

Example win probability table

[How accurate are those probabilities? Here is an analysis of Moneyline probabilities versus actual win percentage ]

New England has the highest probability of winning at 93%, so they should get 16 points. Pittsburgh has a 90% chance, so they should get 15 points. Buffalo has only at 56% chance of winning, so they only get 1 point. Use these picks and you should be relatively high in the standings, and you will look like you know what you’re doing!

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BUT… ending up “relatively high” in the standings probably won’t win you money each week. Depending on your league rules, you’ll likely need to be top 3 to win money. This is where the money picks come in.

NEXT: The Money Picks >