Confidence Pool Strategy: The Base Pick
How do you choose which team to win, and how many points to give it? The obvious answer is to pick the favored team to win. And the number of points? Give the team most likely to win the most confidence points, the least likely to win the least confidence points, and slot everything else in between. That’s mostly right, but there is a twist to that which we’ll get to later in this post (hint: it has to do with “Money Picks”).
So how do you know which team is most likely to win, on down to the team that’s least likely to win? The short answer: we’ll just tell you! We provide this info to our Premium Members. Here’s what one week’s picks looked like from a previous year:
Example win probability table
How do we come up with these numbers? Well there are plenty of sites that will run simulations and crunch numbers, but what we use currently are the Las Vegas betting lines. More specifically, we use the Moneyline bets, in which the oddsmakers tell you how much money they will pay out if the team you’re betting on wins. The more likely to win, the less they will pay out. Using these numbers, we can come up with a “Win Probability” that basically says what percent chance a team has of winning.
So there you go! New England has the highest probability of winning at 93%, so they should get 16 points. Pittsburgh has a 90% chance, so they should get 15 points. Buffalo has only at 56% chance of winning, so they only get 1 point. We’re calling these our Base Picks. Use these picks and you should at end up relatively high in the standings, and you will look like you know what you’re doing!
BUT… ending up relatively high in the standings probably won’t win you money. You probably need to be top 3 to win money. This is where the money picks come in.