2025 Week 8 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

[Dennis DeGraff]

Hi Dale,

Have you performed an analysis as to how often the top money pick hits?

Thanks, Dennis

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Dennis,
In general, we would expect the money picks to hit the same amount as the win probability (like if it’s 25%, it hits 25% of the time). The analysis shows that for the year we ran this analysis, the lower win probability picks (where our money picks usually lie) actually did better than expected. Please check this article: Win probability vs actual win percentage

[Phillip Wamser]

Wasn’t the week 7 base pick total 102?

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Phillip, the total was based on the Friday Updated Picks, which included the latest adjustments from that week. I hope this helps.

[RM]

When would the last update come in for the picks? Isnt it better to just take the final updated picks and roll with them?

Thanks

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello RM,
We usually release the preliminary picks on Tuesday, followed by the updated picks on Wednesday for the Thursday game and for those who prefer to lock in early. Then, we send out the Friday update for anyone who wants to make changes as the games get closer. The Friday update is generally considered the final one before the games begin.

[TJ]

I have to imagine a new update is coming with Lamar Jackson News breaking over weekend

[RM]

Ha ha..he was already ruled out yesterday.

[TJ]

so no update since 10/24? Jackson was ruled out and no adjustment? Come on guys

[TJ]

do better

[Author]

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