Hello all, due to popular demand, we’ve come up with some Survivor Pool Picks. We’re basing our picks off win probabilities, predicted wins, and % picked. Let’s go over the three criteria:
Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.
Predicted wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have this season. This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.
% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.
Without further adieu, here are the picks for Week 1:
Blue pick (lowest risk): LA Rams. Their win probability is similar to TB and SF, but they have slightly less predicted wins than TB and less % picked than LA. But TB and SF are pretty close too.
Yellow pick (medium risk): Buffalo Bills. Slightly less win probability, but a lot less % picked.
Green pick (high risk, high rewards): Carolina Panthers. Their win probability is only 69%, which makes them riskier than other picks, but their predicted wins is only 7.5. If you’re in a big league or you are willing to take a bigger risk, take Carolina and save the TB, SF, KCs for later in the season.
My pick: LA Rams in my regular league, Carolina in the big league.