Welcome to Week 14!
Week 13 Recap: We had two picks hit this week. NE defeated BUF 14-10 to keep 1st place in the AFC East. WSH beat LAS 17-15, so the Taylor Heinicke story continues!
Here are the FREE picks for the week.
| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | Underdog | Win Prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |  GB |
-12.5 | 87% | vs |  CHI |
13% |
| 13 |  KC |
-9.5 | 81% | vs |  LAS |
19% |
| 12 |  TEN |
-8.5 | 81% | vs |  JAX |
19% |
| 11 |  LAC |
-10.5 | 78% | vs |  NYG |
23% |
| 10 |  DEN |
-8 | 77% | vs |  DET |
23% |
| 9 |  SEA |
-7.5 | 76% | @ |  HOU |
24% |
| 8 |  NO |
-5 | 67% | @ |  NYJ |
33% |
| 7 |  DAL |
-3.5 | 64% | @ |  WSH |
36% |
| 6 |  MIN |
-3.5 | 62% | vs |  PIT |
38% |
| 5 |  TB |
-3.5 | 62% | vs |  BUF |
38% |
| 4 |  CAR |
-3 | 59% | vs |  ATL |
41% |
| 3 |  ARI |
-3 | 58% | vs |  LAR |
42% |
| 2 |  CLE |
-2.5 | 56% | vs |  BAL |
44% |
| 1 |  SF |
-1 | 52% | @ |  CIN |
48% |
Here are your PREMIUM picks.
| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Underdog | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Pred Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
GB |
-12.5 | 87% | 97% | 11.8 | vs |
CHI |
13% | 3% | 4.8 | 28-16 |
| 13 |
KC |
-9.5 | 81% | 96% | 10.1 | vs |
LAS |
19% | 4% | 4.2 | 29-20 |
| 12 |
TEN |
-8.5 | 81% | 99% | 11.3 | vs |
JAX |
19% | 1% | 4.5 | 26-18 |
| 11 |
LAC |
-10.5 | 78% | 99% | 11.0 | vs |
NYG |
23% | 1% | 4.6 | 27-17 |
| 10 |
DEN |
-8 | 77% | 96% | 9.6 | vs |
DET |
23% | 4% | 3.8 | 25-17 |
| 9 |
SEA |
-7.5 | 76% | 96% | 9.0 | @ |
HOU |
24% | 4% | 4.1 | 25-17 |
| 8 |
NO |
-5 | 67% | 89% | 7.6 | @ |
NYJ |
33% | 11% | 3.3 | 25-19 |
| 7 |
DAL |
-3.5 | 64% | 76% | 6.8 | @ |
WSH |
36% | 24% | 3.7 | 26-22 |
| 6 |
MIN |
-3.5 | 62% | 68% | 5.2 | vs |
PIT |
38% | 32% | 4.1 | 24-20 |
| 5 |
TB |
-3.5 | 62% | 84% | 6.5 | vs |
BUF |
38% | 16% | 3.9 | 28-25 |
| 4 |
CAR |
-3 | 59% | 71% | 5.4 | vs |
ATL |
41% | 29% | 3.8 | 23-20 |
| 3 |
ARI |
-3 | 58% | 76% | 5.4 | vs |
LAR |
42% | 24% | 4.3 | 28-24 |
| 2 |
CLE |
-2.5 | 56% | 45% | 3.6 | vs |
BAL |
44% | 55% | 4.3 | 22-20 |
| 1 |
SF |
-1 | 52% | 32% | 4.1 | @ |
CIN |
48% | 68% | 4.9 | 25-23 |
Green Picks: JAX has a 19% win probability and is only being picked 4%. DET has a 23% win probability and is only picked 8% of the time.
Thursday Update: NYG and HOU have been added as green picks. NYG has a win rate of 23% and is picked 1% of the time. HOU has a win probability of 24% and is being picked 5% of the time. JAX has the same win rate but is only being picked 1% now. DET pick rate went down to 5%.
Yellow Picks: ATL has a 41% win probability and is picked 15%. SF has a big win probability at 48% and is being picked 30% of the time.
Thursday Update: LAR and BUF are now yellow picks. LAR has a 42% win rate and is being picked only 23%. BUF has a 38% win rate and 15% pick rate. ATL pick rate went up to 27%. SF win rate went up to 52% and is still being picked at 30%
Blue Picks: There are no blue picks at the moment.
Saturday Update: No changes to our picks.
And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:
| Point | Base (Lowest) | Some Risk | Med Risk | High Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
GB |
GB |
LAR |
NYG |
| 13 |
KC |
KC |
GB |
GB |
| 12 |
TEN |
TEN |
KC |
KC |
| 11 |
LAC |
LAC |
TEN |
TEN |
| 10 |
DEN |
DEN |
LAC |
DEN |
| 9 |
SEA |
SEA |
DEN |
SEA |
| 8 |
NO |
NO |
SEA |
NO |
| 7 |
DAL |
DAL |
NO |
DAL |
| 6 |
MIN |
MIN |
DAL |
MIN |
| 5 |
TB |
TB |
MIN |
TB |
| 4 |
CAR |
CAR |
TB |
CAR |
| 3 |
ARI |
ARI |
CAR |
ARI |
| 2 |
CLE |
CLE |
CLE |
CLE |
| 1 |
CIN |
CIN |
CIN |
CIN |