Hey, Confidence Pool Picks Nation! Week 5 is here, and the season’s drama keeps delivering. Last week’s money picks came through in a big way, with the Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Jacksonville Jaguars pulling off upsets that shook up the standings. With momentum building from those surprise wins, it’s time to dive into a new slate of matchups and uncover which teams could be this week’s game-changers.

In the Premium Pool, a huge congratulations to “Spankenstein” for clinching first place in Week 4! Outstanding work securing the top spot. A big shoutout to “Talty” and “Grit” for taking home second and third place, respectively! Fantastic job all around!

In the CPP Nation Pool, a huge congratulations to “ReynasReign” for grabbing first place in Week 4! Way to shine with those winning picks. A big shoutout to “Mithaman” and “John B” for locking in second and third place, respectively! Great effort, everyone!

Here are this week’s updated base picks.

Premium Picks

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Premium Picks[$]

Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points.

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Updated Picks on 10/03/25]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• Washington Commanders over Los Angeles Chargers: 40% win probability, 8% pick-rate
• Jacksonville Jaguars over Kansas City Chiefs: 37% win probability, 8% pick-rate
• Denver Broncos over Philadelphia Eagles: 33% win probability, 8% pick-rate
• Las Vegas Raiders over Indianapolis Colts: 26% win probability, 3% pick-rate
• Tennessee Titans over Arizona Cardinals: 21% win probability, 2% pick-rate
• New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills: 21% win probability, 2% pick-rate

For Week 5, the spotlight is on the Washington Commanders to upset the Los Angeles Chargers. With only a 40% win probability and an 8% pick-rate, this underdog pick carries big risk, but even bigger potential rewards for those willing to take the chance.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• Houston Texans over Baltimore Ravens: 54% win probability, 25% pick-rate
• New Orleans Saints over New York Giants: 54% win probability, 27% pick-rate
• New York Jets over Dallas Cowboys: 44% win probability, 11% pick-rate
• Cleveland Browns over Minnesota Vikings: 35% win probability, 17% pick-rate

[Updated on 10/03/25] This week’s medium-risk play is the New York Jets over the Dallas Cowboys. With a 44% win probability and a 11% pick-rate, it’s a balanced choice that carries some risk but offers solid potential to gain ground on the competition.

Week 5 is the time to stay sharp, trust your instincts, and make every pick count toward climbing the leaderboard!

Suggested picks by risk

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.