Welcome to Week 3! It’s time for more Confidence Pool Picks.
Here are the FREE picks for the week.
| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | Underdog | Win Prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |  DEN |
-10 | 84% | vs |  NYJ |
16% |
| 15 |  CAR |
-8 | 80% | @ |  HOU |
20% |
| 14 |  BAL |
-7.5 | 78% | @ |  DET |
22% |
| 13 |  CLE |
-0 | 76% | vs |  CHI |
34% |
| 12 |  BUF |
-7 | 76% | vs |  WSH |
24% |
| 11 |  ARI |
-7.5 | 75% | @ |  JAX |
25% |
| 10 |  KC |
-7 | 74% | vs |  LAC |
26% |
| 9 |  TEN |
-5 | 68% | vs |  IND |
32% |
| 8 |  LAS |
-3.5 | 66% | vs |  MIA |
34% |
| 7 |  DAL |
-3.5 | 62% | vs |  PHI |
38% |
| 6 |  SF |
-3 | 60% | vs |  GB |
40% |
| 5 |  NE |
-3 | 58% | vs |  NO |
42% |
| 4 |  PIT |
-2.5 | 58% | vs |  CIN |
42% |
| 3 |  NYG |
-2.5 | 58% | vs |  ATL |
42% |
| 2 |  SEA |
-2 | 55% | @ |  MIN |
45% |
| 1 |  TB |
-1 | 48% | @ |  LAR |
52% |
Here are your PREMIUM picks.
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| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Underdog | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Pred Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
DEN |
-10 | 84% | 99% | 12.5 | vs |
NYJ |
16% | 1% | 5.0 | 26-16 |
| 15 |
CAR |
-8 | 80% | 96% | 10.5 | @ |
HOU |
20% | 4% | 4.2 | 26-17 |
| 14 |
BAL |
-7.5 | 78% | 97% | 12.5 | @ |
DET |
22% | 3% | 4.3 | 29-21 |
| 13 |
CLE |
-0 | 76% | 91% | 9.8 | vs |
CHI |
34% | 9% | 3.7 | 0-0 |
| 12 |
BUF |
-7 | 76% | 98% | 12.2 | vs |
WSH |
24% | 2% | 4.7 | 27-19 |
| 11 |
ARI |
-7.5 | 75% | 98% | 12.2 | @ |
JAX |
25% | 2% | 5.1 | 29-22 |
| 10 |
KC |
-7 | 74% | 97% | 11.0 | vs |
LAC |
26% | 3% | 4.0 | 31-23 |
| 9 |
TEN |
-5 | 68% | 95% | 9.0 | vs |
IND |
32% | 5% | 4.3 | 25-20 |
| 8 |
LAS |
-3.5 | 66% | 96% | 9.8 | vs |
MIA |
34% | 4% | 4.4 | 24-21 |
| 7 |
DAL |
-3.5 | 62% | 88% | 7.4 | vs |
PHI |
38% | 12% | 4.7 | 28-24 |
| 6 |
SF |
-3 | 60% | 52% | 4.7 | vs |
GB |
40% | 48% | 4.5 | 27-24 |
| 5 |
NE |
-3 | 58% | 64% | 5.2 | vs |
NO |
42% | 36% | 4.3 | 23-20 |
| 4 |
PIT |
-2.5 | 58% | 84% | 7.5 | vs |
CIN |
42% | 16% | 3.8 | 23-20 |
| 3 |
NYG |
-2.5 | 58% | 66% | 4.5 | vs |
ATL |
42% | 34% | 4.0 | 25-22 |
| 2 |
SEA |
-2 | 55% | 78% | 6.3 | @ |
MIN |
45% | 22% | 3.7 | 28-26 |
| 1 |
TB |
-1 | 48% | 60% | 5.5 | @ |
LAR |
52% | 40% | 3.4 | 28-27 |
[Thursday update: CIN replaces MIN as our yellow pick after some more research and news.]
[Saturday update: SEA has dropped 2 and LAR is now favored over TB]
Green Picks: 1. MIA and 2. IND have the green light as our green picks this week. MIA has a 35% chance of winning but are being only picked 5% of the time, while IND has a slightly lower win prob at 30% with 6% picked.
Yellow Picks: CIN is our lone yellow pick this week as they head to Pit and face off against the Steelers.
Blue Picks: SF is the blue pick at 63% win prob but only 54% picked. Will George Kittle ever get an haircut?
And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:
Our Risk Table is as of Thursday!
| Point | Base (Lowest) | Some Risk | Med Risk | High Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
DEN |
DEN |
DEN |
DEN |
| 15 |
CAR |
SF |
CIN |
MIA |
| 14 |
BAL |
CAR |
CAR |
CAR |
| 13 |
ARI |
BAL |
BAL |
BAL |
| 12 |
BUF |
ARI |
ARI |
ARI |
| 11 |
KC |
BUF |
BUF |
BUF |
| 10 |
CLE |
KC |
KC |
KC |
| 9 |
TEN |
CLE |
CLE |
CLE |
| 8 |
LAS |
TEN |
TEN |
TEN |
| 7 |
DAL |
LAS |
LAS |
DAL |
| 6 |
SEA |
DAL |
DAL |
SEA |
| 5 |
SF |
SEA |
SEA |
SF |
| 4 |
PIT |
PIT |
SF |
PIT |
| 3 |
NYG |
NYG |
NYG |
NYG |
| 2 |
NE |
NE |
NE |
NE |
| 1 |
TB |
TB |
TB |
TB |