Welcome to Week 3! It’s time for more Confidence Pool Picks.

Here are the FREE picks for the week.

Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob Underdog Win Prob
16
DEN
-10 84% vs
NYJ
16%
15
CAR
-8 80% @
HOU
20%
14
BAL
-7.5 78% @
DET
22%
13
CLE
-0 76% vs
CHI
34%
12
BUF
-7 76% vs
WSH
24%
11
ARI
-7.5 75% @
JAX
25%
10
KC
-7 74% vs
LAC
26%
9
TEN
-5 68% vs
IND
32%
8
LAS
-3.5 66% vs
MIA
34%
7
DAL
-3.5 62% vs
PHI
38%
6
SF
-3 60% vs
GB
40%
5
NE
-3 58% vs
NO
42%
4
PIT
-2.5 58% vs
CIN
42%
3
NYG
-2.5 58% vs
ATL
42%
2
SEA
-2 55% @
MIN
45%
1
TB
-1 48% @
LAR
52%

Here are your PREMIUM picks.

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Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob % Pick Avg Conf Underdog Win Prob % Pick Avg Conf Pred Score
16
DEN
-10 84% 99% 12.5 vs
NYJ
16% 1% 5.0 26-16
15
CAR
-8 80% 96% 10.5 @
HOU
20% 4% 4.2 26-17
14
BAL
-7.5 78% 97% 12.5 @
DET
22% 3% 4.3 29-21
13
CLE
-0 76% 91% 9.8 vs
CHI
34% 9% 3.7 0-0
12
BUF
-7 76% 98% 12.2 vs
WSH
24% 2% 4.7 27-19
11
ARI
-7.5 75% 98% 12.2 @
JAX
25% 2% 5.1 29-22
10
KC
-7 74% 97% 11.0 vs
LAC
26% 3% 4.0 31-23
9
TEN
-5 68% 95% 9.0 vs
IND
32% 5% 4.3 25-20
8
LAS
-3.5 66% 96% 9.8 vs
MIA
34% 4% 4.4 24-21
7
DAL
-3.5 62% 88% 7.4 vs
PHI
38% 12% 4.7 28-24
6
SF
-3 60% 52% 4.7 vs
GB
40% 48% 4.5 27-24
5
NE
-3 58% 64% 5.2 vs
NO
42% 36% 4.3 23-20
4
PIT
-2.5 58% 84% 7.5 vs
CIN
42% 16% 3.8 23-20
3
NYG
-2.5 58% 66% 4.5 vs
ATL
42% 34% 4.0 25-22
2
SEA
-2 55% 78% 6.3 @
MIN
45% 22% 3.7 28-26
1
TB
-1 48% 60% 5.5 @
LAR
52% 40% 3.4 28-27

[Thursday update: CIN replaces MIN as our yellow pick after some more research and news.]

[Saturday update: SEA has dropped 2 and LAR is now favored over TB]

Green Picks: 1. MIA and 2. IND have the green light as our green picks this week. MIA has a 35% chance of winning but are being only picked 5% of the time, while IND has a slightly lower win prob at 30% with 6% picked.

Yellow Picks: CIN is our lone yellow pick this week as they head to Pit and face off against the Steelers.

Blue Picks: SF is the blue pick at 63% win prob but only 54% picked. Will George Kittle ever get an haircut?

And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:

Our Risk Table is as of Thursday!

Point Base (Lowest) Some Risk Med Risk High Risk
16
DEN
DEN
DEN
DEN
15
CAR
SF
CIN
MIA
14
BAL
CAR
CAR
CAR
13
ARI
BAL
BAL
BAL
12
BUF
ARI
ARI
ARI
11
KC
BUF
BUF
BUF
10
CLE
KC
KC
KC
9
TEN
CLE
CLE
CLE
8
LAS
TEN
TEN
TEN
7
DAL
LAS
LAS
DAL
6
SEA
DAL
DAL
SEA
5
SF
SEA
SEA
SF
4
PIT
PIT
SF
PIT
3
NYG
NYG
NYG
NYG
2
NE
NE
NE
NE
1
TB
TB
TB
TB