Welcome to Week 8!
Week 7 Recap: 3 of our money picks hit last week! NYG won decisively over CAR 25-3. Not bad for a team that was being picked only 9%. CIN was another bit hit vs BAL this week with a 41-17 victory. ATL also won their matchup against MIA 30-28 with a Koo’s last second FG.
Here are the FREE picks for the week.
| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | Underdog | Win Prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |  LAR |
-14.5 | 90% | @ |  HOU |
10% |
| 14 |  BUF |
-13.5 | 89% | vs |  MIA |
11% |
| 13 |  CIN |
-10.5 | 83% | @ |  NYJ |
17% |
| 12 |  KC |
-10 | 81% | vs |  NYG |
19% |
| 11 |  ARI |
-6.5 | 73% | vs |  GB |
27% |
| 10 |  TB |
-6 | 70% | @ |  NO |
30% |
| 9 |  LAC |
-5 | 70% | vs |  NE |
30% |
| 8 |  SF |
-3.5 | 66% | @ |  CHI |
34% |
| 7 |  CLE |
-3.5 | 65% | vs |  PIT |
35% |
| 6 |  PHI |
-3.5 | 64% | @ |  DET |
36% |
| 5 |  SEA |
-3 | 62% | vs |  JAX |
38% |
| 4 |  ATL |
-2.5 | 61% | vs |  CAR |
39% |
| 3 |  DEN |
-3 | 61% | vs |  WSH |
39% |
| 2 |  MIN |
-1 | 55% | vs |  DAL |
45% |
| 1 |  IND |
-1 | 52% | vs |  TEN |
48% |
Here are your PREMIUM picks.
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| Base Pick | Pick | Spread | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Underdog | Win Prob | % Pick | Avg Conf | Pred Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
LAR |
-14.5 | 90% | 99% | 13.2 | @ |
HOU |
10% | 1% | 6.2 | 31-17 |
| 14 |
BUF |
-13.5 | 89% | 99% | 13.4 | vs |
MIA |
11% | 1% | 4.8 | 32-18 |
| 13 |
CIN |
-10.5 | 83% | 99% | 12.5 | @ |
NYJ |
17% | 1% | 5.3 | 26-16 |
| 12 |
KC |
-10 | 81% | 96% | 10.5 | vs |
NYG |
19% | 4% | 5.8 | 32-21 |
| 11 |
ARI |
-6.5 | 73% | 80% | 6.4 | vs |
GB |
27% | 20% | 3.9 | 28-22 |
| 10 |
TB |
-6 | 70% | 95% | 10.3 | @ |
NO |
30% | 5% | 4.4 | 28-22 |
| 9 |
LAC |
-5 | 70% | 90% | 8.8 | vs |
NE |
30% | 10% | 4.7 | 27-22 |
| 8 |
SF |
-3.5 | 66% | 70% | 5.8 | @ |
CHI |
34% | 30% | 3.4 | 22-18 |
| 7 |
CLE |
-3.5 | 65% | 76% | 5.9 | vs |
PIT |
35% | 24% | 4.2 | 23-20 |
| 6 |
PHI |
-3.5 | 64% | 49% | 4.8 | @ |
DET |
36% | 51% | 3.2 | 26-22 |
| 5 |
SEA |
-3 | 62% | 88% | 7.6 | vs |
JAX |
38% | 12% | 3.6 | 24-20 |
| 4 |
ATL |
-2.5 | 61% | 84% | 5.5 | vs |
CAR |
39% | 16% | 3.8 | 24-22 |
| 3 |
DEN |
-3 | 61% | 76% | 5.7 | vs |
WSH |
39% | 24% | 4.1 | 24-20 |
| 2 |
MIN |
-1 | 55% | 30% | 5.2 | vs |
DAL |
45% | 70% | 7.5 | 28-27 |
| 1 |
IND |
-1 | 52% | 19% | 4.0 | vs |
TEN |
48% | 81% | 7.6 | 26-25 |
Green Picks: NO has a 30% of winning but is only being picked 4%. NE has a 30% win percentage but is only being picked 10%. JAX is touted with a 39% win percentage and is being picked only by 10%. Fun fact: Jacksonville is the largest city by land mass in America.
Thursday Update: NO has been added to our green picks with their odds. NE pick rate went down to 9%. JAX win probability is down to 38% and their pick % went up by 1 to 11%.
Saturday Update: NO has increased being picked by 1%.
Yellow Picks: IND has a 59% chance of winning and is being picked 14% in their matchup. That’s some serious value. MIN has a 42% win percentage and 15% picked.
Thursday Update: IND now has a 52% of winning and 16% picked. MIN is increased to 45% and is picked 16%.
Saturday Update: IND has increased being picked by 1% to 17%. MIN also increased to being picked to 19%.
Blue Picks: PHI is our blue pick with a 65% win probability and being picked at 54%.
Thursday Update: PHI now has a 64% of winning and 52% picked.
Saturday Update: PHI has decreased to 51% picked.
And here are the low, medium, and high risk picks for the week:
| Point | Base (Lowest) | Some Risk | Med Risk | High Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
LAR |
LAR |
LAR |
LAR |
| 14 |
BUF |
PHI |
IND |
NO |
| 13 |
KC |
BUF |
BUF |
BUF |
| 12 |
CIN |
KC |
KC |
KC |
| 11 |
ARI |
CIN |
CIN |
CIN |
| 10 |
LAC |
ARI |
ARI |
ARI |
| 9 |
TB |
LAC |
LAC |
LAC |
| 8 |
PHI |
TB |
TB |
PHI |
| 7 |
CLE |
CLE |
PHI |
CLE |
| 6 |
SF |
SF |
CLE |
SF |
| 5 |
SEA |
SEA |
SF |
SEA |
| 4 |
ATL |
ATL |
SEA |
ATL |
| 3 |
DEN |
DEN |
ATL |
DEN |
| 2 |
IND |
IND |
DEN |
IND |
| 1 |
DAL |
DAL |
DAL |
DAL |