Here are the early Week 4 picks. We hope everyone had a good week last week. There were quite a few upsets last week! Our Green picks of Miami, Indiana, Jacksonville, as well as our yellow picks of Carolina, Green Bay, and Atlanta all hit! Hopefully everyone can have the same type of success or better than last week this upcoming week!
Here are the FREE Week 4 base pics:
Green Picks (#riskitforthebiscuit):
Jacksonville Jags (27% win probability, 6% picked)
Houston Texans (31% win probability, 9% picked)
Seattle Seahawks (34% win probability, 9% picked)
The Seattle Seahawks Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jags are our green “risky” picks for this week. All three teams’ winning % are above 30%, but the % of being selected are below 10%. Chargers lost their top defender – Joey Bosa to injuries, and their quarterback, Justin Herbert, is playing with fractured ribs. This makes Houston a great pick for this week to pull off the upset! Jacksonville and Seattle also have good chances, although Jalen Hurts and the Eagles just dismantled Carson Wentz and the Commanders, while Detroit took the Vikings to the wire. Thus, we recommend choosing Texans as the “green” pick.
Saturday 10/1/22 Update: Washington Commanders became the latest “green” pick. With win probability at 39%, but under 10% selected. Jags probability dropped to under 30%. They may not be as good of a “green” pick anymore. Houston is right at 30%, so they also dropped. This is even without Keenan Allen (WR) for the chargers playing this week. Quarterback Justin Herbert will play (with fractured ribs), so Texans is still a good upset/green pick! Optimal picks are Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders.
Yellow Picks (#safer)
New Orleans Saints (42% win probability, 26% picked).
San Francisco 49ers (56% win probability, 19% picked).
Tampa Bay Buccs (45% win probability, 23% picked)
Carolina Panthers (54% win probability, 24% picked).
The Niners, Saints, Buccs, Falcons, and Panthers are our “yellow” picks for this week. In terms of the best probability, it appears Niners has the best odds (56%, only 19% selected). Vegas gives Jimmy Garrapolo and the Niners 56% to win/the favorite vs. the defending champion Rams. This is surprising given how badly Garrapolo played this past week (stepped out of bounds in own endzone for a safety, and threw a pick six), but I suspect it is because of their defense and the game will be played in San Francisco.
Otherwise Panthers is another good yellow pick (54% win and 24% picked). Vegas does not believe in Kylar Murray and the Cardinals. Yet the data shows majority of the fans still choose Cardinals to win (75% picked). This makes Panthers another great medium risk play for this week (over 50% probability to win, and under 30% of being picked).
Saturday 10/1/22 Update: Baltimore probability is at 40%, but they no longer are our “yellow” pick, given there are better options. The top3 options appear to be San Francisco Niners, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs win probability has risen to 51% (favored). It appears Brady may get both wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back this week.
Blue Picks Option(s): #riskadverse
Cincinnati Bengals (66% win probability, 45% picked)
The Bengals is our “blue” pick for this week. Vegas gave them 66% probability to win, but under 50% of being selected. However, they may play a banged up Tua, or a backup quarterback on a short week. Be sure to check back on Thursday or for updates to see if they remain our “blue” pick for this week.
Wednesday 9/28/22 Update: Nothing changed. Bengals is still the blue pick for this week. Note: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is listed as questionable to play, and so is their WR Jaylen Waddle. However, most reports suggest they will suit up.
Suggested picks by risk
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.