Week 1 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

2023, Regular Confidence Pool Picks / 10 Comments

Hello Confidence Pool Picks participants! As we kick off the new football season, we’re excited to share some updates to enhance your experience:

  1. Pick changes: This year, we’ll be giving you the changes in base pick points, win probability, and percentage at each updates.
  2. Discussion Board: We’ve introduced a platform where you can engage with fellow participants, share strategies, or just chat about the latest games.
  3. Streamlined Money Pick Indicators: Instead of the previous green, yellow, and blue picks, we’ll now have bright green (higher risk) and dark green (medium risk). We’ve decided to retire the blue picks.
  4. Weekly Polls: We’ll be running polls to gather your feedback on performance. Whether you landed in first place, were in the money, or just missed out, we want to hear from you!

In future posts, expect a performance recap of the previous week’s picks, scores from various risk strategies, and the total season base pick score. We’re looking forward to another exciting season of football. Let’s dive into Week 1’s picks!

How did you do last year?

How did you do last season?
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Here are this weeks’ FREE base picks.

***Sneak Preview***

Following is a sneak preview of picks that Premium Members will get. Also, premium members don’t get ads. Sign up for Premium Picks here.

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Premium Picks

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

  1. NEP over PHI (35% win probability, 5% picked)
  2. IND over JAC (32%, 7%)
  3. TBB over MIN (29%, 4%)
  4. DET over KCC (27%, 5%)
  5. ARI over WAS (25%, 6%)

The New England Patriots are leading the charge this week in our Higher Risk picks. They’ve got a decent 35% shot at a win, and only 5% of participants are backing them. The Colts aren’t far behind with a 32% win probability and just 7% of folks picking them. The Bucs, Lions, and Cardinals are also looking spicy this week with win probabilities hovering in the high 20s and low pick rates.

Saturday Update:

Money Pick Change:

  • SFO (@ PIT) was previously a medium risk money pick but is no longer indicated as a money pick in the updated table.

Base Point Changes: DAL (@ NYG) increased by 2 base points, while DEN (vs LAS) and NOS (vs TEN) both decreased by 2 base points.

Wednesday update:

  • DET‘s win probability against KCC rose by 2% due to Travis Kelce’s recent knee injury, making it an even better money pick.
  • IND‘s base points increased by 1 against JAC.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

  1. CLE over CIN (44%, 15%)
  2. NYJ over BUF (44%, 23%)
  3. PIT over SFO (43%, 23%)

Kicking off our Medium Risk picks, the Browns are looking solid with a 44% win probability and only 15% of participants on their side. The Jets and Steelers are also in the mix, both rocking mid-40s win probabilities, though they’re a bit more popular among pickers.

Wednesday update:

PIT saw a 2% increase in win probability for their game against SFO.

Suggested picks by risk

› Forums › Week 1 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

Viewing 6 reply threads
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    • 09/02/2023 at 10:18 am #6179 Reply
      Joyce Buala
      Member

      Hello Confidence Pool Picks participants! As we kick off the new football season, we’re excited to share some updates to enhance your experience: Pick
      [See the full post at: Week 1 Regular Confidence Pool Picks]

    • 09/04/2023 at 4:22 am #6206 Reply
      Dan Coyle
      Member

      Glad to see these out early! As a new member, I wasn’t sure if the color highlights of the “Money Picks” have changed. The video guide indicates Green, Yellow and Blue, but the table has light green and a darker green?

      • 09/04/2023 at 8:10 am #6208 Reply
        Dale Ting
        Member

        Hey Dan! Welcome! Yes we changed the colors a bit this year, dropping the blue picks and changing the yellow picks to dark green. We’ll send out an update and update the video as well!

    • 09/04/2023 at 5:14 am #6207 Reply
      Parth Parikh
      Member

      What does * mean in the $ column? I see two diff shades of green, any meaning to that?

      • 09/04/2023 at 8:11 am #6209 Reply
        Dale Ting
        Member

        Work in progress, but in the future it’ll mean there was a change in the money pick since the last update. Good catch!

    • 09/04/2023 at 5:42 pm #6212 Reply
      Matthew Thomas
      Member

      Hey Dale,
      What are the new colors in lieu of Green,Yellow,Blue?

      Thanks. Love the site!

      • 09/04/2023 at 7:29 pm #6213 Reply
        Dale Ting
        Member

        Hi Matt!

        We basically eliminated the blue pick and changed yellow to dark green. I’ll have a video up soon with the explanation!

    • 09/05/2023 at 7:58 am #6231 Reply
      Kevin
      Guest

      Hi football lovers! I’m Kevin and new here. My friends call me “dogg”. I’ve been in a pool for years, but hard times have rendered me homeless. I’ve been living in a ford focus since December of last year and I really missed the excitement of the pool last season, so let’s have some fun 🤩!

    • 09/07/2023 at 10:49 am #6245 Reply
      Johnny
      Guest

      In the “Suggested picks by risk” table, the “Risk” columns do not line up with the “Base” column.
      e.g. KCC went from 11 in the “Base” column to 13 in the “Some Risk” column. In the same 2 columns, PHI and DEN are switched, DAL and NOS are switched, and SFO and BUF are switched. I saw your video on this and I thought the idea here is to bump them all down by 1 confidence point from the “Base” (or 2 points for “High Risk”). Were these changes intentional or a mistake?

      • 09/07/2023 at 6:43 pm #6251 Reply
        Dale Ting
        Member

        Oops, we didn’t update the risk picks table! We’ll update it for our next post. Thanks for catching!

    • 09/07/2023 at 8:27 pm #6254 Reply
      Dale Ting
      Member

      Great way to start the year... money pick hits!

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