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Hello Dennis,
In general, we would expect the money picks to hit the same amount as the win probability (like if it’s 25%, it hits 25% of the time). The analysis shows that for the year we ran this analysis, the lower win probability picks (where our money picks usually lie) actually did better than expected. Please check this article: Win probability vs actual win percentageHello Phillip, the total was based on the Friday Updated Picks, which included the latest adjustments from that week. I hope this helps.
Hello Chris,
This strategy gives you the best chance of taking first place or being in the money in the week. You do risk being lower in the overall standings if it doesn’t hit though (which it won’t much of the time, but it hits more often than you would think). So it’s a balance of how much risk you want to take. Bigger leagues need more risk, if you’re behind in the standings anyway, you can take a bigger risk. If you’re up, or if you’re in a smaller league, then yes you probably want to dial that down a bit.Hello Paul, thanks for pointing that out! The numbers were swapped, the correct ones are Some Risk: 86 and High Risk: 97. I’ve updated the post as well.
Hello Steven, I totally get what you mean. On Wednesday, CAR was one of our risk pick candidates, but since NO had the higher $Score at that time, it was the one shown in the suggested picks table. Then on Friday’s update, CAR actually moved up with the highest $Score, so it became the suggested pick in the update. Hopefully that clears it up a bit.
Hello Dennis, the $ Score feature highlights picks with a higher win probability but a lower percentage of people choosing them.
Hello Dominic, bright green is when you want to take a bigger risk. This is a team that’s not very good and probably doesn’t have many wins available in a season, but this is their best chance of winning a game.
Hello Carl, Last week’s analysis showed no upsets, but after the games, the underdogs came through, with the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills pulling off the wins.
Hello Shane, there’ll be no against the spread picks. Hope you checked our latest updates on our Divisional Round picks.
Hello TJ, the $ score is something we’re testing out and it’s based on higher win prob and lowest % picked.
Hello Stix, yes, they take into account players who are not playing. Thank you! We’re so pleased our analysis has been helpful to you.
