By popular demand, I did some number crunching for college football bowl confidence picks. Here’s the first cut at the base and money picks. More analysis and strategy thoughts coming soon.
Wed Dec 21 Noon Eastern time analysis:
- We started off the bowl season with a big upset, where 43 point pick Jackson State went down to North Carolina Central in OT. That hurt, but hopefully a lot of people picked Jackson state in your pools and we all went down with that ship.
- Blue pick SMU lost by 1 to BYU. That one hurt if you bumped this one up.
- Rice and North Texas also were money picks that did not hit
- Louisville was a yellow pick that hit. Hope some of you went big on this one!
Coming up:
The next money pick opportunities are on Thursday 12/23, with Louisiana and Missouri for upset picks. If you’re doing well, you may not want to go for these picks. If you’re down, you might want to move these picks up to higher numbers and bump the rest down.
Base picks as of 12/15 6:45 PM Eastern Time
Base picks and money picks order by win probability (NOTE: The final championship game opponents and data won’t be determined until 12/31 so we’ve assigned the game a 50/50 probability):
Here are the base picks by alphabetical order so you can find them when you enter them in:
Basing off the rules from the ESPN Bowl Mania game, you can update your picks all the way up to game time for each bowl game. Here are the games sorted by date played to help with your picks.
Games sorted by date:
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Do you pic Texas -4and a half
Why is North Carolina at listed at 43?
Sorry typo when we updated the numbers. Fixed!
Hey you have North Carolina at 43 points and as favored by 14. I believe Oregon is favored and not North Carolina. Should Oregon be the 43 for base picks ?
Sorry typo
Are you considering all the player opt outs when calculating your spreadsheets?
Hi Robert, they’re taken into account when the win probabilities are updated.
Any reason why Florida is at 3? Is that supposed to be UTSA?
Fixed, thanks!
Appreciate the list! Is this a final list or will you be updating??
Possibly… I’m still trying to wrap my head around the strategy and how to best give you the right tables to help you pick… That may take precedence over updating but I’ll look into it!