It is finally that time of year! Welcome to Confidence Pool Picks, and officially week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.
There are a lot of exciting matchups this week to start off the season (defending champ Rams v. top offense/QB Josh Allen, Mahomes’ Chiefs vs. Murray’s Cardinals), or rivalry games (Vikings Packers, Chargers Raiders)!
Please see below for Week 1 picks:
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Green Picks (#riskitforthebiscuit):
New York Jets (26% win probability, 3% picked).
This is truly a risk-it for the biscuit play. However, with second year QB Zach Wilson injured, it’s the veteran Joe Flacco who’s starting. As of now, Joe Flacco appears to be the better quarterback, so the entire Jets offense may be better than if Wilson is playing. This may help explain why the NY Jets moved into our “risk pick” for this week.
Seattle Seahawks (28% win probability, 6% picked).
This makes them one of the least picked teams in week 1, but that has a high enough chance to win (close to 30%). If you do not believe in the “revenge game” narrative, this is your pick!
New York Giants (30% win probability, 4% picked).
The Titans team has some question marks: specifically, their defense, and their receiving core – they lost AJ Brown, they are getting Robert Woods back from torn achilles injury, and starting a rookie WR in Treylon burks. This makes the Giants a good upset pick for the week.
Thursday update: Pittsburgh is now a green pick at 28%, 8%. Maybe people don’t have confidence in Mitchell Trubisky? I’m sure Bears fans can relate.
Saturday update: Atlanta has 32% win, 9%. Maybe people have less confidence than couple days ago regarding the Saints offense? It dropped from 15% pick to under 10%.
Yellow Picks (#safer)
Detroit Lions (35% win probability, 20% picked) of the fans picking them to win.
Detroit moved into our medium risk pick of the day, with under 20% of fans picking them to win, yet they have 35% chance of winning.
Cleveland Browns (46% win probability, 26% picked)
Cleveland Browns is our other medium risk play of the week. Similar to Seahawks v. Broncos, if you do not believe in the “revenge game narrative”, then Browns beating Mayfield is the scenario you are rooting for!
Vegas gives the Browns CLOSE to 50% chance of winning, yet under 30% of the fans are picking them. This is a safer play with relatively few people picking them).
Thursday update: DET is an even better yellow now, as its picked percentage has dropped to 16%.
Saturday update: LAS is also a possible yellow pick option, with 37%, 19% picked. More people are believing in the Chargers hype, but they are forgetting Derek Carr is getting his college buddy/receiver – Devante Adams back!
Blue Picks Option(s): #riskadverse
None this week. There are no optimal teams in the blue choice options.
Picks by risk table
If you decide to take one of the green pick(s) – New York/Seattle, then you would ideally make them your #16. This means if you hit on your picks, you would gain 16 points (in this case we are using Atlanta as our selection).
If you decide to take one of the yellow pick(s) – Cleveland, Detroit, then you would ideally make the chosen team your #16 (in this case we are using Cleveland as our selection)
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.