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Blue (lower risk): IND, SFO, BAL. Even the “lower risk” picks are pretty risky this week, lead by Indy at only 76% win probability. Makes sense in Week 1, where there is very little info on how good a team really is.
Yellow (Medium risk): NOS. Only 68% win prob, but they’re also only projected to win 8.5 games this season.
Green (high risk): CAR. This is a highly risky pick, with only 54% win probability, but if you hit you save the good teams to use later in the season.
What the colors mean
Things to consider
Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.
Total expected wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have this season. This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.
% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.