We hope everyone enjoyed week 1 of 2022 NFL Season! There were quite a few upsets! Hopefully everyone was able to take advantage of our suggested picks (Seahawks, Giants, Browns). However, I am sure a lot of people’s brackets got busted with some of the upsets (Steelers, Texans, and Bears etc.)
3 of our 5 selected Green Picks hit! Pete Carroll got the better of Russell Wilson in Wilson’s return to Lumen Field. Saquon Barkley also looked like the Saquon of old, and detonated for 164 yards on the Titans to lead Giants to the big upset! Finally, Baker Mayfield was unable to get his revenge on the Clowns, err Browns, as the rookie Browns kicker Cade York played the hero!
How did you do last week?
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Green Picks (#riskitforthebiscuit):
New York Jets (30% win probability, 4% picked).
Similar to last week, the New York Jets is our green pick of the week. Vegas gives them 30% chance to win, but under 5% of being selected. This makes them our risk pick of the week. They couldn’t do anything vs. Lamar Jackson this week, but they should have a better time against Jacoby Brisett and the Clowns.
Wednesday September 14 Update: The New York Jets is still our green pick for this week. Their winning % dropped from 30% to 29%. However, it is still a great value (risk/green) pick for this week as less than 5% of being picked.
Saturday September 17 Update: The New York Jets is still our green pick for this week. Their winning % dropped from 29% to 28%. However, it is still a great value (risk/green) pick for this week as less than 5% of being picked.
Yellow Picks (#safer)
New England Patriots (53% win probability, 19% picked).
New Orleans Saints (41% win probability, 18% picked).
Miami Dolphins (36% win probability, 18% picked).
All three options of Pats, Saints, and Dolphins qualify as our “yellow pick” of the week (based on % of picked – under 20%). However, in terms of the likeliest to win, Vegas gives Pats over 50% chance. This makes them the best of the 3 options. Note: Pats QB Mac Jones is dealing with back spasm, so his availability will factor into the final projection of probability of Pats winning percentage. As of now, it seems like Vegas does not trust Trubitsky and the Steelers vs. Bill Belicheck.
Wednesday September 14 Update: Patriots odds increased by 2%, up to 55%. They are still our best yellow pick of this week.
Saturday September 17 Update: All of our yellow picks selections received a percentage boost in their win probability %. However, Patriots is still our best yellow pick of this week, followed by Saints. Note: reports say Alvin Kamara was not present on Friday’s practice session for the one that was available to Media portion; however, given the increase in win probability, there is a good chance he plays. Also, WR Michael Pittman is ruled out for Colts tomorrow. I suspect that is why their win probability % dropped by 2 %.
Blue Picks Option(s): #riskadverse
None this week. Similar to last week, there are no optimal teams in the blue choice options.
Picks by risk table
Didn’t do well the first week? Don’t despair, check out our video:
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.