We hope everyone enjoyed week 2 of 2022 NFL Season!! There were quite a few upsets last week! Four of our Six chosen picks HIT last week (Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Jags)! Hopefully all of you were able to take advantage and win some of the matchups in you “pickem” league!
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Thank you for your patience, below are the picks for this week (week3).
How did you do last week?
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Green Picks (#riskitforthebiscuit):
Miami Dolphins (32% win probability, 9% picked)
Indiana Colts (28% win probability, 2% picked)
Washington Commanders (28% picked, 8% picked).
The Dolphins, Colts, and Commanders are our green picks for this week! Vegas gives them all 3 of these teams around 30% probability to win, but all under 10% of being selected. This makes them our risk picks of the week.
Tua exploded and threw 6 TDs last week in leading the Dolphins to an upset win over the Ravens! Vegas gives him 32% chance of leading his team to an upset win over Josh Allen and the Bills.
Wednesday 9/21/22 Update: Jacksonville Jags became our latest green “risky” pick. Vegas gives them 25% probability to win, but only 3% being picked.
Saturday 9/24/22 Update: Jacksonville Jags is our best green “risky” pick for this week. their winning % went from 25% to 38%. The assumption here is because Chargers QB Justin Herbert is questionable, plus receiver Keenan Allen is also questionable.
Yellow Picks (#safer)
Houston Texans (41% win probability, 16% picked).
Carolina Panthers (40% win probability, 20% picked).
New England Patriots (39% win probability, 12% picked).
Atlanta Falcons (46% win probability, 28% picked).
Pats, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers qualify as our “yellow picks” of the week. However, in terms of the likeliest to win, Vegas gives Falcons close to 50% chance (but with higher pick %). The best option appears to be Texans at 41%, but only 16% picked!
Wednesday 9/21/22 Update: Greenbay Packers became our latest yellow pick! It is the battle between two GOAT QBs (Arod v. Brady). Vegas gives Packers 45% probability to win, but under 30% being selected. Brady may be missing his 3 receivers (Godwin, Evans – Suspension, and Julio Jones).
Saturday 9/24/22 Update: Greenbay Packers, is no longer our yellow pick. Falcons, Panthers, Patriots, Texans are still our yellow picks for this week.
Blue Picks Option(s): #riskadverse
San Francisco 49ers (54% win probability, 55% picked)
We finally have a blue #riskadverse pick for this week! Vegas gives SF 49ers 54% chance of winning, yet under 60% of being selected. Unfortunate that they will be without Trey Lance for the rest of season (speedy recovery/prayers to him for making a full recovery), but lets see what Jimmy G can do! His quest to lead the Niners back to the playoffs starts this week… against the Broncos!
Saturday 9/24/22 Update: Womp Womp, it appears 49ers will not be our blue pick for this week. The % of picked jumped to 61%, which is above our blue “safe” pick threshold.
Suggested picks by risk
If you decide to take one of the green pick(s) – Jacksonville, then you would ideally make them your #16. This means if you hit on your picks, you would gain 16 points (in this case we are using Miami as our selection).
If you decide to take one of the yellow pick(s) – Atlanta, Houston, New England, etc., then you would ideally make the chosen team your #16 (in this case we are using Carolina as our selection).
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.