Hello Confidence Pool Picks nation! Welcome to the 2024 season! Here are this week’s updated picks. Since it’s Week 1, there are still a lot of money picks as it’s challenging to gauge which teams are strong or not this early in the season.

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See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Picks have since been updated on Saturday 9/7]

The best money picks this week are Jacksonville over Miami and Cleveland over Dallas. Only 6% are picking Jacksonville, and only 33% are picking Cleveland despite them being favored. However there are lots of others this week that you can pick as an upset and move up on if you want to go for it:

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• JAC over MIA (37% win probability, 6% pick-rate)
• LAR over DET (36%, 8%)
• NYJ over SFO (34%, 8%)
• CAR over NOS (34%, 6%)
• ARI over BUF (27%, 4%)
• NEP over CIN (22%, 2%)

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• CLE over DAL (57% win probability, 33% pick-rate)
• BAL over KCC (41%, 23%)
• IND over HOU (41%, 15%)
• LAS over LAC (40%, 16%)
• WAS over TBB (38%, 11%)

Suggested picks by risk

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.