Happy New Year, Confidence Pool Picks Nation! Week 18 is here, and the excitement couldn’t be greater as we close out the holiday season with the final thrilling matchups of the year. Teams are leaving it all on the field, making every game a battle to remember. This is the perfect moment to fine-tune your strategy, make those decisive picks, and embrace the magic of football as we welcome a new year filled with opportunities. Let’s kick off 2025 with passion and precision!

Week 17 brought an action-packed lineup of games, filled with challenges and intense matchups. Among our eight high-risk picks, only one delivered an upset: the New York Giants (NYG) secured a thrilling victory over the Indianapolis Colts (IND), showcasing their resilience. In the medium-risk category, neither of our two selections managed to pull off an upset this time. As the season nears its climax, we eagerly await Week 18. Time to strategize and finish strong.

Huge congratulations to “BYFA” for securing the top spot in CPP Nation Pool with an impressive 131 points—what a stellar performance! In a thrilling second-place tie, “PUFan’s Perky Picks” and “Go Colts!!!” hold strong with 123 points each, while “The Tush Push Ambush” and “RockLonemilk” are right on their heels, sharing third place with 122 points. The final stretch is here as Week 18 promises thrilling action. Who will seize victory in the Pool? Stay tuned to see how it all unfolds.

Additionally, congratulations to Tim for sharing their incredible results in their Confidence Pool Week 17! Achieving 132 points with an outstanding 14-2 record is truly commendable. Great job!

Source: Tim

Base Picks: 115
Some Risk: 116
Med Risk: 96
High Risk: 101

Current Season Base Pick Score: 1562

Here are this week’s updated base picks.

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Welcome to Week 18, Confidence Pool Picks Nation! As we close out 2024 and gear up for the season’s thrilling finale, this week’s updated lineup brings 5 High-Risk and 4 Medium-Risk matchups—perfect opportunities to make bold, strategic choices. Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points. With the competition tighter than ever, every pick matters. Let’s finish the year strong and kick off 2025 with a winning mindset!

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Picks updated on 01/03/25]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• New England Patriots (NEP) over Buffalo Bills (BUF): 43% win probability, 8% pick-rate
• New York Giants (NYG) over Philadelphia Eagles (PHI): 41% win probability, 7% pick-rate
• Las Vegas Raiders (LAS) over Los Angeles Chargers (LAC): 34% win probability, 5% pick-rate
• Dallas Cowboys (DAL) over Washington Commanders (DAL): 28% win probability, 8% pick-rate
• Carolina Panthers (CAR) over Atlanta Falcons (ATL): 21% win probability, 4% pick-rate
• Chicago Bears (CHI) over Green Bay Packers (GBP): 18% win probability, 3% pick-rate

This week brings 5 updated High-Risk matchups, offering exciting opportunities for those ready to take daring picks. Leading the pack is the New England Patriots (NEP) over the Buffalo Bills (BUF), with a 43% win probability, an 8% pick rate, and a $score of 8.4 points. Close behind are the New York Giants (NYG) over the Philadelphia Eagles (PHI), showcasing a 41% win probability, a 7% pick rate, and a $score of 8.3 points. As we approach the season finale, these high-risk matchups could deliver rewarding surprises. Choose wisely and embrace the excitement of Week 18.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• New York Jets (NYJ) over Miami Dolphins (MIA): 48% win probability, 14% pick-rate
• Tennessee Titans (TEN) over Houston Texans (HOU): 54% win probability, 13% pick-rate
• Minnesota Vikings (MIN) over Detroit Lions (DET): 41% win probability, 21% pick-rate
• Arizona Cardinals (ARI) over San Francisco 49ers (SFO): 67% win probability, 43% pick-rate
• Seattle Seahawks (SEA) over Los Angeles Rams (LAR): 72% win probability, 26% pick-rate

The Medium Risk category for Week 18 is down to 4 exciting matchups, offering strategic opportunities for calculated picks. Leading the Medium-Risk category for Week 18 is the Seattle Seahawks (SEA) over the Los Angeles Rams (LAR), now with an updated 72% win probability, a 26% pick rate, and a $score of 20.9 points, securing their spot as the top choice. The Tennessee Titans (TEN) over the Houston Texans (HOU) follow with a 54% win probability, a 13% pick rate, and a $score of 13.1 points. Additionally, the New York Jets (NYJ) over the Miami Dolphins (MIA) present an intriguing option, boasting a 48% win probability, a 14% pick rate, and a $score of 7.6 points. With the season finale fast approaching, these medium-risk matchups present compelling opportunities for promising outcomes. Make your picks carefully!

As we close out the season and head into 2025, it’s time to sharpen your strategies for these decisive picks.

Suggested picks by risk

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.