Welcome back, Confidence Pool Picks nation! The 2025 NFL season is finally here, and excitement is in the air as teams hit the field for Week 1. With fresh rosters and new storylines, predicting the strongest contenders is always a challenge at the start of the season. Here are this week’s preliminary picks—let’s kick off another thrilling year of football and see which teams rise to the top!

How did you do last year?

Here are this week’s updated base picks.

Premium Picks

To see the whole table, subscribe to Premium Picks here.

Already got premium picks? Sign in here to see your picks.

Premium Picks[$]

Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points. With the competition tighter than ever, every pick matters. Let’s start the 2025 season strong and set the tone for a winning year!

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Picks updated on 09/05/25]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• Cleveland Browns (CLE) over Cincinnati Bengals (CIN): 31% win probability, 5% pick-rate
• New York Giants (NYG) over Washington Commanders (WAS): 29% win probability, 4% pick-rate
• New Orleans Saints (NOS) over Arizona Cardinals (ARI): 27% win probability, 7% pick-rate
• Tennessee Titans (TEN) over Denver Broncos (DEN): 20% win probability, 3% pick-rate

This week’s standout high-risk pick is the Cleveland Browns over the Cincinnati Bengals. With a 31% win probability and just 5% of participants backing them, the Browns present a daring opportunity for those looking to make a big move up the leaderboard. Choosing this underdog could pay off significantly if they manage to pull off the upset.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• Indianapolis Colts (IND) over Miami Dolphins (MIA): 52% win probability, 27% pick-rate
• Baltimore Ravens (BAL) over Buffalo Bills (BUF): 53% win probability, 28% pick-rate
• Seattle Seahawks (SEA) over San Francisco 49ers (SFO): 47% win probability, 18% pick-rate
• Atlanta Falcons (ATL) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TBB): 45% win probability, 16% pick-rate
• New York Jets (NYJ) over Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT): 41% win probability, 10% pick-rate
• Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) over Kansas City Chiefs (KCC): 38% win probability, 16% pick-rate
• Carolina Panthers (CAR) over Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC): 36% win probability, 11% pick-rate

For a medium-risk pick, consider the New York Jets (NYJ) over the Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT). With a 41% win probability and just 10% pick-rate, they offer a smart chance to stand out while keeping solid upside.

As the 2025 season kicks off, now is the perfect time to refine your strategies and make every pick count in the weeks ahead.

Suggested picks by risk

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.