2025 Week 4 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

[Dennis DeGraff]

How do you use the $ Score as an additional indicator? What is the $ Score range that is significant?

Thanks

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Dennis, the $ Score feature highlights picks with a higher win probability but a lower percentage of people choosing them.

[Steven Freundlich]

your updated picks removed CAR and replaced with NO but you took credit for CAR maybe just wait till Wed and give out 1 set of pics lesson the confusion I changed my pics to the update and it cost me the win on my pool

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Steven, I totally get what you mean. On Wednesday, CAR was one of our risk pick candidates, but since NO had the higher $Score at that time, it was the one shown in the suggested picks table. Then on Friday’s update, CAR actually moved up with the highest $Score, so it became the suggested pick in the update. Hopefully that clears it up a bit.

[Paul Jarchow]

I think the calculation of 97 points for the Some Risk option is incorrect as it was 86 points
Losses
BAL minus 9 points
Dallas minus 1
Denver minus 16
GB minus 14
ATL minus 10.
Total minus of 50 against total possible of 136 is 86 points not 97.
How did you calculate some risk at 97?

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Paul, thanks for pointing that out! The numbers were swapped, the correct ones are Some Risk: 86 and High Risk: 97. I’ve updated the post as well.

[Chris LeBlanc]

I’m struggling to understand the value of taking the risk points at 16 points instead of less. What’s the logic on it? I get making the picks and trying to differentiate yourself from the pool, but if that comes at sacrificing your 16-14 usual locks then how are you gaining ground losing those a high percentage of time when others are risking 4-8 on those picks? Just curious

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Chris,
This strategy gives you the best chance of taking first place or being in the money in the week. You do risk being lower in the overall standings if it doesn’t hit though (which it won’t much of the time, but it hits more often than you would think). So it’s a balance of how much risk you want to take. Bigger leagues need more risk, if you’re behind in the standings anyway, you can take a bigger risk. If you’re up, or if you’re in a smaller league, then yes you probably want to dial that down a bit.

[Collin]

In addition to “scores from last week” it would nice to see a cumulative total of points for each risk level.

[Joey De la Pena]

Hello Collin,
Yes, we’ve already applied that to the latest posts. Thank you for the suggestion!

[Author]

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