2025 Week 4 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

Regular Confidence Pool Picks, Uncategorized / 10 Comments

Hey, Confidence Pool Picks Nation! Week 4 is here, and the season is already full of surprises. Last week, the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears shook things up with big hits and upsets that kept fans on the edge of their seats. With new matchups ahead and plenty of momentum building, it’s time to see which teams will step up and deliver in another exciting week of football.

Scores from last week:

  • Base pick: 99
  • Some Risk: 86
  • Med Risk: 111
  • High Risk: 97

How did you do last week?
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Here are this week’s updated base picks.

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Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points. Week 4 is here, and the action is heating up—every pick counts, every game matters!

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Updated Picks on 09/26/25]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

  • New York Giants over Los Angeles Chargers: 27% win probability, 3% pick-rate
  • Cincinnati Bengals over Denver Broncos: 21% win probability, 3% pick-rate

Looking for a bold play in Week 4? The New York Giants over the Los Angeles Chargers is as risky as it gets. With just a 27% win probability and only a 3% pick-rate, this matchup is flying under the radar. It’s a long shot, but if the Giants pull off the upset, it could be the kind of move that separates daring fans from the rest of the pack.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

  • Las Vegas Raiders over Chicago Bears: 52% win probability, 29% pick-rate
  • Atlanta Falcons over Washington Commanders: 56% win probability, 11% pick-rate
  • Arizona Cardinals over Seattle Seahawks: 46% win probability, 24% pick-rate [Game Concluded]
  • New York Jets over Miami Dolphins: 41% win probability, 21% pick-rate
  • Jacksonville Jaguars over San Francisco 49ers: 38% win probability, 10% pick-rate
  • Indianapolis Colts over Los Angeles Rams: 36% win probability, 19% pick-rate

The medium-risk pick for Week 4 is the Atlanta Falcons over the Washington Commanders. With a 56% win probability and a 10% pick-rate, this matchup offers a smart balance of risk and reward. It’s bold enough to separate from the crowd, yet steady enough to give confidence in making the call.

Week 4 is the chance to take risks, trust your strategy, and turn every pick into an opportunity for victory!

Suggested picks by risk


See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.

› Forums › 2025 Week 4 Regular Confidence Pool Picks

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    • 09/24/2025 at 12:40 pm #12518 Reply
      Dennis DeGraff
      Member

      How do you use the $ Score as an additional indicator? What is the $ Score range that is significant?

      Thanks

      • 09/24/2025 at 4:15 pm #12522 Reply
        Joey De la Pena
        Moderator

        Hello Dennis, the $ Score feature highlights picks with a higher win probability but a lower percentage of people choosing them.

    • 09/24/2025 at 2:30 pm #12519 Reply
      Steven Freundlich
      Member

      your updated picks removed CAR and replaced with NO but you took credit for CAR maybe just wait till Wed and give out 1 set of pics lesson the confusion I changed my pics to the update and it cost me the win on my pool

      • 09/24/2025 at 4:40 pm #12524 Reply
        Joey De la Pena
        Moderator

        Hello Steven, I totally get what you mean. On Wednesday, CAR was one of our risk pick candidates, but since NO had the higher $Score at that time, it was the one shown in the suggested picks table. Then on Friday’s update, CAR actually moved up with the highest $Score, so it became the suggested pick in the update. Hopefully that clears it up a bit.

    • 09/24/2025 at 2:30 pm #12520 Reply
      Paul Jarchow
      Member

      I think the calculation of 97 points for the Some Risk option is incorrect as it was 86 points
      Losses
      BAL minus 9 points
      Dallas minus 1
      Denver minus 16
      GB minus 14
      ATL minus 10.
      Total minus of 50 against total possible of 136 is 86 points not 97.
      How did you calculate some risk at 97?

      • 09/24/2025 at 4:44 pm #12525 Reply
        Joey De la Pena
        Moderator

        Hello Paul, thanks for pointing that out! The numbers were swapped, the correct ones are Some Risk: 86 and High Risk: 97. I’ve updated the post as well.

    • 09/25/2025 at 10:01 am #12533 Reply
      Chris LeBlanc
      Member

      I’m struggling to understand the value of taking the risk points at 16 points instead of less. What’s the logic on it? I get making the picks and trying to differentiate yourself from the pool, but if that comes at sacrificing your 16-14 usual locks then how are you gaining ground losing those a high percentage of time when others are risking 4-8 on those picks? Just curious

      • 09/30/2025 at 8:34 am #12552 Reply
        Joey De la Pena
        Moderator

        Hello Chris,
        This strategy gives you the best chance of taking first place or being in the money in the week. You do risk being lower in the overall standings if it doesn’t hit though (which it won’t much of the time, but it hits more often than you would think). So it’s a balance of how much risk you want to take. Bigger leagues need more risk, if you’re behind in the standings anyway, you can take a bigger risk. If you’re up, or if you’re in a smaller league, then yes you probably want to dial that down a bit.

    • 09/25/2025 at 10:17 am #12534 Reply
      Collin
      Member

      In addition to “scores from last week” it would nice to see a cumulative total of points for each risk level.

      • 09/30/2025 at 12:24 pm #12562 Reply
        Joey De la Pena
        Moderator

        Hello Collin,
        Yes, we’ve already applied that to the latest posts. Thank you for the suggestion!

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