Hey, Confidence Pool Picks Nation! The season is heating up as we roll into Week 6, and the competition is getting tighter with every matchup. Week 5 brought some solid results, with several of our money picks—New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints, and Houston Texans—coming through to deliver key wins. With that momentum carrying forward, it’s time to turn the page, analyze the new slate, and uncover which teams have the edge to keep the success rolling into Week 6.
In the Premium Pool, a huge congratulations to Andrea for taking the top spot in Week 5! Excellent work leading the pack with a strong performance. A big shoutout to Buffalo Pills and ReadySetGo, who tied for second place, and to Just For Kicks and Carnage, who shared third.
In the CPP Nation Pool, a huge congratulations to JockMcGillicutty for taking first place in Week 5! Outstanding job topping the leaderboard with sharp picks. A big shoutout to easymoney888 for securing second place and TheBaldOne for rounding out the top three.
Excellent work all around as the competition stays fierce heading into Week 6!
| Total Season: | 467 | 443 | 470 | 450 |
| Scores from last week: | Base pick | Some Risk | Med Risk | High Risk |
| Week 5 | 41 | 34 | 52 | 44 |
Here are this week’s updated base picks.
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Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points.
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.
[Updated Picks on 10/10/25]
Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):
- Carolina Panthers over Dallas Cowboys: 38% win probability, 9% pick-rate
- New Orleans Saints over New England Patriots: 36% win probability, 9% pick-rate
- Atlanta Falcons over Buffalo Bills: 32% win probability, 2% pick-rate
- Cleveland Browns over Pittsburgh Steelers: 28% win probability, 6% pick-rate
- Arizona Cardinals over Indianapolis Colts: 24% win probability, 3% pick-rate
- New York Jets over Denver Broncos: 22% win probability, 3% pick-rate
- New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles: 21% win probability, 3% pick-rate
This week’s high risk, high reward play goes to the Atlanta Falcons over the Buffalo Bills. With just a 32% win probability and a 2% pick rate, this matchup is a true long shot but one that could deliver major upside for those bold enough to back it. If the Falcons pull off the upset, it could be the difference maker that shakes up the standings in a big way.
Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):
- Kansas City Chiefs over Detroit Lions: 55% win probability, 30% pick-rate
- San Francisco 49ers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 40% win probability, 16% pick-rate
The Kansas City Chiefs over the Detroit Lions is this week’s medium risk pick. With a 55% win probability and 30% pick rate, it’s a smart play that balances risk and reward while offering solid potential to climb the leaderboard.
Week 6 is the moment to stay focused, trust those instincts, and make every pick count in the race up the leaderboard.
Suggested picks by risk
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.
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