Week 3 is here, and the excitement continues to build. Last week’s money picks, the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons, delivered excellent results for those who backed them. With new matchups on the horizon and updated picks ready, it’s time to review the options and aim for another successful week.

Scores from last week:

• Base pick: 114
• High Risk: 120
• Med Risk: 98
• Some Risk: 110

Here are this week’s updated base picks.

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Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points. Week 3 is here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. One pick can change everything, make yours count!

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Updated Picks on 09/19/25]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• Los Angeles Rams over Philadelphia Eagles: 36% win probability, 9% pick-rate
• Tennessee Titans over Indianapolis Colts: 34% win probability, 7% pick-rate
• Carolina Panthers over Atlanta Falcons: 31% win probability, 4% pick-rate
• New York Giants over Kansas City Chiefs: 27% win probability, 5% pick-rate
• New York Jets over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26% win probability, 2% pick-rate
• New Orleans Saints over Seattle Seahawks: 22% win probability, 2% pick-rate

For a high risk pick, the Carolina Panthers over the Atlanta Falcons stands out. With just a 31% win probability and a 4% pick-rate, this selection is a true long shot. Choosing the Panthers offers a bold opportunity to make a big move against the field if they manage to pull off the upset.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• Chicago Bears over Dallas Cowboys: 47% win probability, 25% pick-rate
• New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers: 46% win probability, 26% pick-rate
• Denver Broncos over Los Angeles Chargers: 41% win probability, 11% pick-rate
• Las Vegas Raiders over Washington Commanders: 40% win probability, 11% pick-rate
• Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers: 40% win probability, 24% pick-rate

For a medium risk pick, the Denver Broncos over the Los Angeles Chargers presents a balanced option. With a 41% win probability and an 11% pick-rate, this choice offers a reasonable chance for success while still providing an opportunity to gain an edge over more popular selections. Opting for the Broncos could help differentiate your entry without taking on excessive risk.

Now’s the time to lock in your smartest moves and make every selection count in Week 3.

Suggested picks by risk

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.