Hello Dennis,
In general, we would expect the money picks to hit the same amount as the win probability (like if it’s 25%, it hits 25% of the time). The analysis shows that for the year we ran this analysis, the lower win probability picks (where our money picks usually lie) actually did better than expected. Please check this article: Win probability vs actual win percentage

Hello Phillip, the total was based on the Friday Updated Picks, which included the latest adjustments from that week. I hope this helps.

Hello RM,
We usually release the preliminary picks on Tuesday, followed by the updated picks on Wednesday for the Thursday game and for those who prefer to lock in early. Then, we send out the Friday update for anyone who wants to make changes as the games get closer. The Friday update is generally considered the final one before the games begin.