Welcome back, Confidence Pool Picks nation! The 2026 NFL season is finally here, and Week 1 is loaded with fresh rosters and new storylines. We have the preliminary picks ready for this week. Here’s how the community sees this week’s toughest calls shaping up and where the real value is hiding.

Here are this week’s preliminary base picks.

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See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.

[Preliminary Picks on 09/08/2026]

Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• Carolina Panthers over Chicago Bears: 42% win probability, 9% pick-rate
• Washington Commanders over Philadelphia Eagles: 34% win probability, 4% pick-rate
• New Orleans Saints over Detroit Lions: 27% win probability, 2% pick-rate
• Cleveland Browns over Jacksonville Jaguars: 22% win probability, 3% pick-rate

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• Houston Texans over Buffalo Bills: 53% win probability, 20% pick-rate
• New York Jets over Tennessee Titans: 46% win probability, 16% pick-rate
• New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys: 41% win probability, 18% pick-rate
• Indianapolis Colts over Baltimore Ravens: 40% win probability, 14% pick-rate
• New England Patriots over Seattle Seahawks: 37% win probability, 12% pick-rate
• Miami Dolphins over Las Vegas Raiders: 37% win probability, 13% pick-rate
• Atlanta Falcons over Pittsburgh Steelers: 37% win probability, 10% pick-rate
• San Francisco 49ers over Los Angeles Rams: 37% win probability, 10% pick-rate
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Cincinnati Bengals: 35% win probability, 15% pick-rate

Suggested picks by risk

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.