Welcome to Week 4! This week is showing a LOT of great money picks, including one where the money pick is actually favored. This may be the week to take some risk…

Scores from last week:

• Base pick: 91
• High Risk: 89
• Med Risk: 85
• Some Risk: 89

Total season base pick score: 266

Here are this weeks’ FREE base picks.

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Premium Picks

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Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):

• CAR over MIN: (36%, 7%)
• LAS over LAC: (31%, 5%)
• NEP over DAL: (26%, 6%)

The Carolina Panthers are the best pick this week at 36% win probability and only 7% picked. Las Vegas and the Patriots round out our high risk picks.

Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):

• NYG over SEA: (51%, 21%)
• TEN over CIN (45%, 13%)
• ATL over JAC: (40%, 13%)
• HOU over PIT: (41%, 17%)

The Giants are our best pick, as they are actually favored with a 51% win probability but only 21% picked. TEN and ATL are also great picks, as they are over 40% win probability with only 13% picked.

Saturday update: The Giants win probability has fallen to 47%, but still a medium pick at 21% picked.

See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.