Welcome to Week 3, Confidence Pool Picks Nation! Two money picks hit in Week 2: New Orleans and Minnesota, though the top suggested plays (Jets, Titans) came up short. Check out this week’s updated picks below. Let’s keep it rolling in Week 3!
Congrats to our Premium Pool players: RockLonemilk tops the standings after Week 2, Amb912 sits close behind in 2nd, and Postal022 takes 3rd.
Shoutout to our CPP Nation Pool players: Purk81 leads the way after Week 2, Jdeats28 and Roe&jak are tied for 2nd, and Barrett rounds out 3rd.
Congrats to all of our top players across both pools, let’s see who’s still standing after Week 3!
| Total Season: | 193 | 185 | 164 | 158 |
| Scores from last week: | Base pick | Some Risk | Med Risk | High Risk |
| Week 2 | 90 | 78 | 76 | 65 |
Here are this week’s preliminary base picks.
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Keep an eye on our $ Score metrics to uncover the top-value picks and maximize your points.
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make confidence pool picks for beginners – 2023 update video for for more info on how to use these picks.
[Updated Picks on 09/23/2026]
Higher Risk Picks (Bright Green):
- Atlanta Falcons over Green Bay Packers: 29% win probability, 3% pick-rate
- Washington Commanders over Seattle Seahawks: 26% win probability, 2% pick-rate
- New York Jets over Detroit Lions: 26% win probability, 3% pick-rate
- Los Angeles Chargers over Buffalo Bills: 23% win probability, 1% pick-rate
- Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers: 21% win probability, 1% pick-rate
Los Angeles Chargers over Buffalo Bills (23% win probability, 1% pick-rate, 5.8 $Score) is the clear top value play in the High Risk tier this week, with a 5.8 $Score well ahead of the field (Atlanta is next at 4.9) and barely anyone touching it at just 1% of the public.
Medium Risk Picks (Dark Green):
- Cleveland Browns over Carolina Panthers: 41% win probability, 11% pick-rate
- Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals: 36% win probability, 11% pick-rate
Cleveland Browns over Carolina Panthers (41% win probability, 11% pick-rate, 5.4 $Score) is the standout of the two Medium Risk plays this week, well ahead of Pittsburgh’s 3.0 $Score.
Week 3 is here, and the picks that pay off are the ones nobody else is willing to make. Trust your research, back your value plays, and let’s have a great week!
Suggested picks by risk
See our NFL Weekly Confidence Pool Picks: The Basics post or How to make NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Pool Picks – step by step video for for more info.
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