We taught Chat GPT how to make confidence pool picks. Here’s what it came up with!

Base Picks:

1. BAL over HOU – 16 points: A clear favorite with a high win probability, making it a straightforward pick.
2. WAS over ARI – 15 points: Another strong favorite based on win probability.
3. MIN over TBB – 14 points: Chose the Vikings due to their higher win probability, even though Tampa Bay is a potential money pick.
4. KCC over DET – 13 points: Kansas City is the favorite, but recent injury news introduces an element of uncertainty.
5. SEA over LAR – 12 points: Seattle’s higher win probability makes them the safer choice.

Higher Risk Money Picks:

1. NEP @ PHI – 11 points: Opting for New England offers a chance to differentiate from the vast majority, given that only 5% of participants are picking them.
2. IND over JAC – 10 points: The Colts offer an opportunity for a strategic upset pick, allowing for differentiation from the majority.

Medium Risk Money Picks:

1. CLE over CIN – 9 points: Cleveland was chosen due to their slightly better odds and the chance to differentiate from the majority.
2. NYJ over BUF – 8 points: The Jets offer a chance for differentiation with a medium risk, given the close odds with Buffalo.

Remaining Picks:

1. LAC over MIA – 7 points: The Chargers were chosen based on their favorable win probability.
2. ATL over CAR – 6 points: Atlanta’s slight edge in win probability influenced this pick.
3. NOS over TEN – 5 points: New Orleans was chosen based on their slightly better win probability.
4. DAL over NYG – 4 points: Dallas was picked due to their slightly better odds.
5. PIT over SFO – 3 points: Pittsburgh was chosen based on their recent uptick in win probability.
6. CHI over GBP – 2 points: Chicago was picked for their home advantage in a nearly even matchup.
7. DEN over LAS – 1 point: Denver was chosen for their slightly better odds and the chance to differentiate at a low confidence point.

The strategy is rooted in the insights from the site, focusing on a combination of win probabilities and opportunities to differentiate from the majority in the pool.