Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Hi Scott, yes the premium and the base picks do coincide. What the premium picks give you are the money picks, i.e. picks that have the highest win probability and lowest public picked.
Yup, there’s a lot of factors that go into game play nowadays, but we allow the Vegas oddsmakers to figure all that out. We just take the odds and compare them to the picked percentages and come up with the best value upset picks!
They were suggested in the table above it, and in the write-up. The table you’re looking at with the Commanders and the Saints are only the top 2 picks according to the stats.
OK all I went ahead and updated with the latest picks. Please disregard any changes in base picks or probabilities for teams that have already played.
@TJ take a look at this article where we went back to see how accurate our win probabilities were:
Hey all, I checked the Eagles game and it looks like their win probability hasn’t gone down much, about 4%. My guess is they already thought Hurts might not play, or the Cowboys are that bad. I’ll see if I can get an update up.
Hi Chris, sometimes we go on a cold streak… Overall, if you pick 2 money picks they’ll only hit about 25% of the time, and if you pick 3 it’ll be about 12%. The hope is when they hit, they’ll hit big because no one else picks them.
Hi Carl! Thanks for the question!
If you notice, the high risk pick we have both NYJ and CLE as top 2 picks. Both of these picks are underdogs, so it is high risk to be picking both that high. In the some risk category, only NYJ are top pick and everyone else is regular base picks.
CLE is more of an underdog than NYJ, so if we pick them at 14 it’s higher risk (but greater reward) than picking NYJ at 14. Hence, they are “med risk”.
For reference, here is the week 5 page: https://confidencepoolpicks.com/2024/2024-week-5-regular-confidence-pool-picks/
Hi Carl, yes if you’re looking to win the week (vs win the season) you would want to take that risk. I went with Denver for 16 last week in one pool and when they pulled the upset I won the week. You will lose much of the time, but hopefully you’d hit 4-5 times a year and be in the money.
Check out this article: https://confidencepoolpicks.com/nfl-weekly-confidence-pool-picks-the-basics/
Hey Justin, the pick score is something we’re kinda dabbling with. Still a work in progress. But yes, the higher score would be a better pick by the numbers, but some people still may want to make other picks because they have other info or maybe they know a lot of people in their league are picking them.
Hi Annette, if you’re trying to win the week (vs. win the season) you generally would want to go high with it. Check out this article for details: https://confidencepoolpicks.com/nfl-weekly-confidence-pool-picks-the-basics/
